NEW YORK, Dec. 28, 2025, 11:24 a.m. ET — Market closed. [1]
Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. (NASDAQ: WBD) Series A shares head into the final week of 2025 with the stock still trading like a headline-driven deal-arbitrage play—caught between competing takeover paths, shifting financing optics, and the practical reality that U.S. equity markets are shut for the weekend and reopen Monday. [2]
WBD’s last completed session (Friday, Dec. 26) saw the stock end around $28.80, after trading between roughly $28.62 and $28.93, with volume near 27 million shares, according to Stock Analysis. That puts the equity within striking distance of the $30-per-share all-cash hostile bid that Paramount Skydance has kept on the table—one reason WBD has been moving less like a traditional media stock and more like a probability-weighted vote on “deal gets done.” [3]
The broader setup: year-end strength, thin liquidity, and a holiday-shortened week
The market backdrop matters for WBD because it can amplify (or mute) deal news. Reuters’ “Week Ahead” notes U.S. equities are finishing 2025 near record levels, with the S&P 500 close to the 7,000 mark and investors watching for signals of sector rotation and rate expectations. Paul Nolte of Murphy & Sylvest Wealth Management told Reuters that “Momentum is certainly on the side of the bulls,” while Michael Reynolds of Glenmede highlighted how investors remain focused on the path of Fed rate cuts. [4]
This week also comes with calendar quirks: New Year’s Day (Thursday, Jan. 1) is a U.S. market holiday, and Investopedia flagged a lighter corporate-earnings slate alongside economic releases that could influence risk appetite, including pending home sales and the release of Federal Reserve meeting minutes. [5]
Separately, Investors.com noted U.S. index futures were set to open Sunday evening—often a tone-setter for Monday’s open when markets have been closed and liquidity is thin. [6]
The core driver: Netflix vs. Paramount Skydance—and what the latest filings say
WBD’s takeover drama is no longer theoretical. The company has publicly confirmed it received an amended, unsolicited tender offer from Paramount Skydance and said its board—working with independent advisors—will review it in line with the existing agreement it has with Netflix. Importantly, WBD said it was not changing its recommendation regarding the Netflix deal and advised shareholders not to take any action on the amended Paramount offer at that time. [7]
On the Paramount side, the amended offer has been positioned as a fully financed $30 per share cash bid for WBD’s Series A stock, paired with a higher reverse termination fee and an extended expiration date. Paramount’s statement also disclosed that its depositary reported 397,252 shares had been validly tendered (and not withdrawn) as of Dec. 19—an early snapshot investors are watching for clues on shareholder appetite. [8]
Reuters has also detailed how Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison stepped in with a $40.4 billion personal guarantee tied to Paramount Skydance’s financing package, while Paramount raised the regulatory reverse termination fee to $5.8 billion and extended the tender-offer expiration to Jan. 21, 2026. Seth Shafer, a principal analyst at S&P Global, told Reuters he doubted the revised bid would sway many fence-sitting shareholders purely on the financing tweaks. [9]
Meanwhile, Netflix has been moving on financing as well. Reuters reported Netflix refinanced part of a $59 billion bridge loan tied to the proposed transaction, including a $5 billion revolving credit facility and two $10 billion delayed-draw term loans, leaving a portion of the bridge facility to be syndicated. That reporting underscores that the Netflix side of the equation is also actively preparing for what would be one of the largest media transactions in history. [10]
What’s new in the last 24–48 hours: commentary, analyst roundups, and positioning signals
While there has not been a fresh weekend filing from WBD itself in the public record highlighted by major wires, a cluster of new weekend coverage and research recaps has shaped the near-term narrative investors may bring into Monday.
1) Jim Cramer weighs in on the bidding war.
In a Sunday piece, Insider Monkey quoted CNBC’s Jim Cramer framing WBD as the “most salient takeover battle” and emphasizing that the key investor takeaway is “two bidders with big pools of capital” chasing the same asset—an observation that helps explain why the stock’s moves have tracked deal probabilities more than quarter-to-quarter fundamentals. [11]
2) Analyst consensus vs. the “deal premium” disconnect.
MarketBeat published a roundup late Saturday showing WBD with an average “Moderate Buy” consensus from 27 analysts and a consensus 1-year price target around $23.22—a figure notably below where the stock is currently trading. That mismatch is a reminder that many Wall Street targets are built on a standalone valuation framework that can become irrelevant when a stock trades near a cash bid. [12]
3) Institutional and insider activity remains part of the conversation.
MarketBeat also pointed to filings showing Thompson Investment Management reduced its WBD stake during Q3 and highlighted recent insider selling, including a sale by CFO Gunnar Wiedenfels. These are not necessarily catalysts by themselves, but in a deal environment, traders often scrutinize insider and institutional behavior for signals about confidence, timing, or liquidity needs. [13]
4) Strategic implications for the business—especially theaters—continue to get fresh attention.
A Wall Street Journal weekend analysis argued that regardless of who ultimately controls Warner, the long-term trajectory for traditional movie theaters remains pressured, citing the box office still below pre-pandemic benchmarks and noting that acquirers would still need to honor existing commitments for a period. [14]
Forecasts and price targets: what “the Street” says—and why it may not settle the debate
Away from the takeover spread, “traditional” analyst targets still provide a useful reference point for what WBD might look like if deals fail or materially change.
A Nasdaq.com article drawing on Fintel data said the average one-year price target for WBD was revised to $27.78, with a range from roughly $20.20 to $36.75. [15]
That compares with MarketBeat’s consensus target closer to $23.22. [16]
Why the spread? Partly methodology and timing, but also the structural issue: when a stock is pinned near a cash offer, it can trade above many fundamental targets because the market is pricing:
- the odds a higher bid emerges,
- the probability of regulatory approval,
- and the timeline to closing (time value and risk). [17]
For investors, the key is not which target is “right” in the abstract, but which scenario you believe the market is converging toward.
If markets are closed: what WBD investors should know before Monday’s session
With U.S. exchanges closed Sunday, WBD investors effectively have two jobs before Monday: understand when liquidity returns, and identify which catalysts can move the spread quickly.
1) Know the clock: premarket and the opening bell
Regular U.S. trading runs 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, with premarket sessions that can begin as early as 4:00 a.m. ET and extended hours into the evening, depending on venue and broker. That matters because deal headlines can hit early, and WBD has been highly sensitive to incremental updates. [18]
2) The tender-offer timeline is a real catalyst—not just background noise
Paramount has extended the tender offer’s expiration to 5:00 p.m. New York time on Jan. 21, 2026, unless further extended. Deal mechanics also matter: tendered shares can typically be withdrawn prior to expiration (subject to the offer’s terms), which can influence how investors interpret early tender counts. [19]
3) WBD’s board posture is still anchored to the Netflix agreement—for now
WBD has publicly said it will review Paramount’s amended offer consistent with its fiduciary duties and existing contractual terms, but it has also said it is not modifying its recommendation for the Netflix merger agreement and told shareholders not to act yet regarding Paramount’s amended tender offer. [20]
4) Financing credibility is becoming a “scoreboard” item
In deal situations, financing certainty can be as important as headline price. Netflix’s financing steps (including refinancing part of a bridge package) and Larry Ellison’s guarantee on Paramount’s side both speak to that theme—and can influence how investors handicap the odds of completion. [21]
5) Expect headline risk—and remember holiday liquidity can magnify moves
Reuters’ week-ahead framing emphasized that year-end portfolio adjustments and lighter volumes can exaggerate price moves. For WBD, that’s especially relevant: in a thin market, a single regulatory comment, tender-update headline, or financing detail can swing the stock more than a typical “fundamentals” story would. [22]
Bottom line
WBD enters Monday’s session as a stock with two simultaneous “prices” embedded inside it: a legacy media company facing secular shifts, and a corporate-transaction instrument that trades on deal terms, financing, and regulatory probability. Friday’s close near $29 keeps the market’s focus squarely on the takeover math—with the next meaningful inflection likely to come from tender-offer developments, board updates, or fresh disclosures from either bidder as the Jan. 21 deadline approaches. [23]
References
1. www.nyse.com, 2. www.nyse.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.investopedia.com, 6. www.investors.com, 7. ir.wbd.com, 8. www.nasdaq.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.insidermonkey.com, 12. www.marketbeat.com, 13. www.marketbeat.com, 14. www.wsj.com, 15. www.nasdaq.com, 16. www.marketbeat.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.nyse.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. ir.wbd.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. stockanalysis.com
