NEW YORK, Dec. 28, 2025, 12:29 p.m. ET — Market closed
Wall Street is shut for the weekend, but AI stocks are not taking a break in the headlines. With the S&P 500 hovering near record territory after a quiet, low-volume post-Christmas session, investors are heading into the final trading days of 2025 weighing two powerful—and conflicting—narratives: the continued buildout of AI infrastructure that keeps lifting chip and cloud leaders, and a growing drumbeat of skepticism about valuation, deal structures, and how the AI boom is being financed. [1]
The past 24–48 hours have delivered a fresh catalyst at the center of the AI trade: Nvidia’s non-exclusive licensing agreement with AI inference-chip startup Groq, paired with key executive hires—an unusual “deal without an acquisition” that is increasingly common in Big Tech’s AI arms race. [2]
At the same time, a prominent bear has returned to the conversation. Michael Burry—made famous by “The Big Short”—has renewed attention with a bearish wager against AI bellwethers Nvidia and Palantir, describing the space as bubble-like and echoing concerns that the market’s AI enthusiasm has outrun fundamentals. [3]
With markets closed today, the key question for investors isn’t what AI stocks did intraday—it’s what might matter before the next opening bell on Monday, Dec. 29: how futures trade tonight, what the macro calendar looks like in a holiday-shortened week, and which AI names have catalysts (or risks) that could drive the next sharp move. [4]
Nvidia and Groq: a high-stakes signal that “inference” is the next battleground
Nvidia’s agreement with Groq is being read across markets as a strategic play for the next phase of AI compute—real-time inference, where models respond to user queries, power AI “agents,” and run at scale across data centers and edge devices.
Here’s what’s known from public reporting and the companies’ statements:
- Groq disclosed it entered a non-exclusive licensing agreement with Nvidia for Groq’s inference technology, and said Groq’s Founder Jonathan Ross, President Sunny Madra, and other team members will join Nvidia to help scale the licensed technology. [5]
- Groq also said it will continue operating as an independent company with Simon Edwards stepping in as CEO, and that GroqCloud will continue operating. [6]
- Reuters noted that while Nvidia dominates the training market, it faces more competition in inference, including from AMD and startups such as Groq and Cerebras—making this move notable as AI workloads shift toward inference-heavy usage. [7]
Investors should pay attention not just to the “what,” but to the “how.” Instead of a straightforward acquisition, this is structured as licensing plus talent migration—part of a pattern Reuters says has emerged as major tech firms pursue technology and teams while stopping short of buying the whole company. That structure may also be designed to reduce antitrust friction in an environment where regulators are increasingly skeptical of consolidation in critical AI infrastructure. [8]
Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon framed that risk bluntly in a note cited by Reuters, suggesting antitrust is the primary risk, while a non-exclusive license may preserve the appearance of competition even as leadership and technical talent move to Nvidia. [9]
The market backdrop: near-record levels, thin volume, and a “Santa Claus rally” lens
The last full U.S. trading session (Friday, Dec. 26) was muted overall, but it provided important context: stocks are close to all-time highs, liquidity is seasonally thin, and positioning into year-end can magnify moves in crowded themes like AI.
Reuters reported that Wall Street finished that session nearly unchanged, with the Dow down 0.04%, the S&P 500 down 0.03%, and the Nasdaq down 0.09%—snapping a five-session rally but still logging weekly gains. [10]
Even in that quiet tape, Nvidia stood out. Reuters noted Nvidia gained about 1% as investors digested the Groq licensing and executive-hiring news. [11]
Strategists are also watching the classic “Santa Claus rally” window—last five trading days of the year and the first two of the new year. Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, told Reuters the market looked like it was “catching our breath,” while emphasizing the Santa Claus period had just begun and could still carry an upward bias. [12]
This matters for AI stocks because the theme has become deeply intertwined with index performance. When semiconductors and mega-cap AI platform names rally, the broader tape often follows—and when they wobble, it can quickly turn into a “risk-off” move.
Bulls vs. bears: why the AI stock narrative is widening, not narrowing
The bullish view: strategic deals and a longer runway for AI buildouts
To the bull camp, the Nvidia-Groq move reinforces a familiar thesis: winners aren’t standing still—they’re broadening their stacks, absorbing talent, and positioning for the next workload transition (from training to inference). [13]
And despite periodic “AI spending fear” pullbacks, Reuters’ week-ahead analysis emphasized that major indexes were still near peaks, and that stocks had shaken off earlier turbulence tied partly to tech weakness and investor worries around AI-related spending. [14]
From a classic market-structure perspective, the bull case also leans on momentum. Paul Nolte, senior wealth adviser and market strategist at Murphy & Sylvest Wealth Management, told Reuters that momentum remained on the bulls’ side and—absent an external shock—the path of least resistance looked higher. [15]
On the stock-specific side, Investopedia reported that Visible Alpha data showed a mean price target for Nvidia around $254, well above prices near the low $190s at the time, highlighting that many analysts still see upside even after Nvidia’s massive run. [16]
The bearish view: deal structures, “vendor financing” concerns, and bubble talk
But the bear narrative is getting louder—and more detailed.
A major point of debate is whether AI infrastructure growth is as “clean” as investors assume. In a widely discussed weekend feature, The Guardian detailed concerns that some Nvidia-related deal structures resemble “vendor financing”—the idea that financing and investments can circle back into customers buying more Nvidia chips—drawing comparisons (in terms of risk dynamics, not necessarily wrongdoing) to past cycles where supplier financing amplified booms and worsened busts. [17]
The Guardian cited prominent tech investor James Anderson describing the phrase “vendor financing” as carrying unpleasant echoes from prior bubbles, while also quoting Forrester analyst Charlie Dai warning that the concern is about sustainability if AI growth slows—potentially leading to write-downs and revenue instability. [18]
Then there’s the high-profile short argument. The Wall Street Journal reported that Michael Burry has been betting against Nvidia and Palantir, calling the AI sector bubble-like and pointing to valuation and corporate-structure concerns. [19]
Taken together, the debate isn’t simply “AI is real” vs. “AI is hype.” Instead, it’s shifting toward a more specific question that matters for AI stocks in 2026: even if AI keeps growing, who captures the profits—and how volatile will the path be? [20]
What the Nvidia-Groq structure could mean for other AI stocks
Investors tracking AI stocks broadly should watch for second-order effects beyond Nvidia:
- Inference challengers and “specialized silicon”: Reuters emphasized that inference is where competition intensifies, with AMD and startups pressing harder. Any sign that Nvidia is adapting its stack for lower-latency inference could raise the bar for peers. [21]
- Cloud and data-center demand signals: AI chip demand ultimately depends on hyperscalers and enterprise customers continuing to build out capacity. The Guardian’s reporting suggests investors are increasingly scrutinizing the financing and circularity in AI infrastructure buildouts. [22]
- AI software names that rode the theme: Palantir is often treated as an “AI software proxy,” making it vulnerable to sentiment swings when prominent skeptics target the AI trade. [23]
- Deal scrutiny and regulatory risk: The pattern of licensing + talent moves—rather than acquisitions—may become more common, but it also invites questions about competition and regulators’ willingness to intervene. [24]
If you’re investing in AI stocks, here’s what to know before Monday’s open
Because the U.S. stock market is closed today, the actionable focus becomes preparation, not reaction.
1) Watch futures tonight for an early sentiment read
U.S. stock index futures typically reopen Sunday evening. CME Group’s published hours show a Sunday evening open for equity index futures trading (with schedules varying by product). [25]
Futures won’t predict Monday perfectly—especially in light holiday liquidity—but they can highlight whether the market is leaning “risk-on” (often supportive of AI stocks) or “risk-off” (often a headwind for high-multiple tech).
2) Know the week’s macro catalysts: Fed minutes and key data
Investors are walking into a holiday-shortened week with several macro events that can move rates expectations—often a major driver for mega-cap tech and AI multiples.
Investopedia’s weekly preview highlighted:
- Pending home sales (Monday, Dec. 29)
- December FOMC meeting minutes (Tuesday, Dec. 30)
- Initial jobless claims (Wednesday, Dec. 31)
…and noted the market will be closed for New Year’s Day (Thursday, Jan. 1). [26]
Separately, Reuters’ week-ahead piece underscored that Fed minutes could be “illuminating” for markets focused on how many rate cuts might come next year, quoting Michael Reynolds of Glenmede on how central rate expectations remain to the 2026 outlook. [27]
3) Expect year-end positioning to amplify moves in crowded AI names
Reuters warned that year-end portfolio adjustments can cause volatility, particularly when trading volumes are light—conditions that frequently make high-profile themes like AI move more than fundamentals alone would suggest. [28]
That matters for Nvidia, Palantir, and other heavily owned AI leaders: in thin markets, incremental news flow (or a sharp move in rates) can create outsized price action.
4) Be clear on market hours and the next full session
The next regular U.S. cash session is Monday, Dec. 29, with the standard core trading window running 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. The NYSE also publishes pre-opening and extended-session details that start earlier in the morning and run later into the evening for certain markets. [29]
The bottom line for AI stocks heading into 2026
AI stocks are closing 2025 with momentum still alive—but also with sharper debates about how the boom is being funded and who is taking the real risk.
On one side: Nvidia’s Groq licensing deal is a reminder that AI leaders are actively repositioning for the next phase of growth, particularly as inference becomes a bigger slice of real-world AI demand. [30]
On the other: the weekend’s most-discussed critiques—from vendor-financing worries to bubble warnings—show that investors are no longer satisfied with “AI is the future” as an all-purpose justification. They want to know what the earnings power looks like through cycles, what the competitive moat is in inference, and whether today’s deal structures create hidden fragility. [31]
With markets reopening Monday, the practical playbook is straightforward: track futures tonight, know the Fed-minute and data calendar, and stay alert to deal-driven headlines—because the AI trade is now moving on both innovation and skepticism, often at the same time. [32]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.wsj.com, 4. www.investopedia.com, 5. groq.com, 6. groq.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.investopedia.com, 17. www.theguardian.com, 18. www.theguardian.com, 19. www.wsj.com, 20. www.theguardian.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.theguardian.com, 23. www.wsj.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.cmegroup.com, 26. www.investopedia.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.nyse.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.theguardian.com, 32. www.investopedia.com
