NEW YORK, Dec. 28, 2025, 12:37 p.m. ET — Market closed.
U.S. stock markets are shut for the weekend, leaving semiconductor stocks in a familiar year-end spotlight: investors are weighing bullish AI-driven demand against fresh supply-chain strain and renewed questions about how durable the “AI trade” really is. With the next regular session set for Monday, Dec. 29, chipmakers and chip-linked ETFs are likely to take their cues from Sunday night futures and any new headlines on AI infrastructure spending, memory pricing, and Big Tech capex. [1]
Where semiconductor stocks left off heading into the weekend
The semiconductor complex heads into Monday after a low-volume, post-Christmas Friday that saw Wall Street finish almost unchanged. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite all ended slightly lower on Dec. 26, snapping a short rally but keeping the “Santa Claus rally” window in focus—an end-of-year seasonal period that runs through early January and often draws attention from traders looking for momentum signals into the new year. [2]
Chip investors also tracked strength in key bellwethers: Reuters reported Nvidia rose after the company agreed to license chip technology from AI startup Groq and hire its CEO—one of several AI-adjacent catalysts that have continued to ripple through the group. [3]
For a sector-level read, the PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) closed Friday, Dec. 26 at 7,207.64, near its session range, underscoring how close chip stocks remain to the center of U.S. equity performance as 2025 winds down. [4]
The biggest semiconductor storyline in the last 24–48 hours: memory is tightening again
The most consequential new development for semiconductors over the last day is not a single earnings report—it’s the intensifying global squeeze in memory.
A Reuters investigation published Sunday (reprinted by The Philadelphia Inquirer) describes an “acute” memory-chip shortage that is forcing AI and consumer-electronics firms to compete for supply as prices climb. The report says the squeeze spans everything from flash memory used in phones and USB drives to high-bandwidth memory (HBM) used alongside AI accelerators in data centers, with some memory segments more than doubling in price since February, according to TrendForce. [5]
The same report highlights how broad the demand pull has become—naming Big Tech firms (including Microsoft and Google) alongside large consumer-tech ecosystems as they try to secure supply from memory producers such as Micron, Samsung Electronics, and SK Hynix. [6]
It also frames the shortage as a potential macro issue. Sanchit Vir Gogia, CEO of Greyhound Research, told Reuters the memory crunch has “graduated” beyond a component issue into something that could create wider economic risk—particularly if it slows AI infrastructure deployment or adds inflation pressure. [7]
Why this matters for semiconductor stocks
For investors, the memory squeeze can cut both ways:
- Potential winners: memory manufacturers and suppliers tied to HBM and server memory demand, where scarcity can support pricing.
- Potential losers (or laggards): downstream hardware makers (PCs, smartphones, OEMs) and parts of the semiconductor chain exposed to cost inflation, allocation risk, or delayed end-demand if device prices rise.
Reuters’ reporting also suggests the industry’s pivot toward higher-margin AI products contributed to tighter supply in more traditional categories—an important reminder that “AI-led” doesn’t always mean “smooth sailing” for every semiconductor sub-sector at the same time. [8]
Consumer-tech spillover is already showing up in prices
The ripple effects are reaching end products. The Verge reported that Framework, a modular laptop maker, is raising DDR5 memory module pricing again, citing ongoing cost surges and supplier expectations that prices will keep rising into early 2026. The piece also cites IDC expectations that the global memory shortage could persist well into 2027 as memory makers prioritize AI-related demand. [9]
For chip stocks, these “real economy” price signals can quickly become market-moving—because they influence assumptions about unit growth, margins, and how long the current capex cycle can run without bumping into constraints.
AI optimism vs. “AI bubble” concerns: Nvidia in the crosshairs again
While the demand picture remains powerful, investors are also digesting a second theme that can move semiconductor valuations quickly: the debate over whether AI infrastructure spending is sustainable at today’s pace.
A Guardian feature published Sunday said Nvidia has pushed back on comparisons to Enron, while acknowledging rising investor scrutiny around the circular nature of some AI-era financing arrangements (often described as vendor-financing-style dynamics). The report quotes tech investor James Anderson voicing concern that the phrase “vendor financing” carries unpleasant echoes from past cycles, even while he remains an admirer of Nvidia’s role in the AI buildout. [10]
The same Guardian piece also cites Charlie Dai, an analyst at Forrester, arguing the core worry is sustainability rather than legality—warning that if AI growth slows, Nvidia could face financial exposure tied to equity stakes and receivables. Nvidia, for its part, pointed to comments from CFO Colette Kress indicating the company is not seeing an AI bubble and emphasizing long-run demand. [11]
Michael Burry’s latest bear case is back in headlines
The bullish-versus-bearish tension is also being amplified by high-profile skepticism. A Wall Street Journal report republished by Mint on Sunday spotlights Michael Burry’s renewed bearish positioning against AI-linked names, including Nvidia, framing it as a bet that parts of the AI trade are priced like a bubble. [12]
Separately, Reuters has reported in recent weeks that Burry has criticized what he describes as aggressive accounting assumptions tied to AI infrastructure buildouts—arguing depreciation schedules and the useful life of AI hardware could be a key fault line in the cycle. [13]
Even if investors disagree with the thesis, the market impact is straightforward: when a widely-followed short seller or macro skeptic becomes the headline, semiconductor multiples can compress quickly—especially in thin year-end liquidity.
China policy watch: fresh “hard tech” funding aimed at integrated circuits
Another headline investors are tracking into Monday is policy support and competition risk from China.
Reuters reported Friday that China launched three venture capital funds to invest in “hard technology,” each with more than 50 billion yuan in planned capital contributions, with expected targets explicitly including integrated circuits (alongside quantum tech and other priority areas). [14]
That matters for global semiconductor stocks because policy-driven funding can accelerate domestic competition in certain nodes, tighten equipment and talent markets, and shape longer-term supply dynamics—especially as governments treat chips as strategic infrastructure.
A quick look at sentiment around Broadcom and the “AI system margin” question
Broadcom remains a useful case study for what markets may reward (revenue growth) versus what they may punish (margin compression) in the AI era.
Reuters previously reported that Broadcom warned of margin pressure as AI-related product mix shifted, which weighed on shares after earnings. [15]
In the last day, a TradingView “key facts” roundup pointed to ongoing investor concern about gross margins and integration costs, while citing Cantor Fitzgerald analyst C.J. Muse as highlighting potential 2026 upside driven by Broadcom’s networking business and support for Google’s AI tensor processing units. [16]
The takeaway for semiconductor investors is broader than Broadcom: markets are increasingly splitting the chip universe into “AI demand winners” and “AI margin beneficiaries,” and those categories aren’t always the same.
What investors should know before the next session
Because markets are closed now, the “next real price” for semiconductor stocks will begin forming when U.S. equity index futures reopen Sunday evening.
1) Futures timing matters tonight.
CME equity index futures typically provide the first broad signal of risk appetite before Monday’s cash open—especially important after a weekend of AI and supply-chain headlines. [17]
2) Expect thin liquidity and sharper moves.
Reuters flagged the light-volume, low-catalyst nature of the post-holiday tape on Friday—conditions that can exaggerate price swings in high-beta groups like semiconductors. [18]
3) Watch the macro calendar, but don’t expect big earnings.
Investopedia’s week-ahead preview notes a holiday-shortened week with no significant corporate earnings on the docket, while traders track data including pending home sales, FOMC meeting minutes, and jobless claims. Markets are closed Thursday for New Year’s Day (with an early bond close on Wednesday). [19]
4) The semiconductor near-term catalyst list is headline-driven.
Given the scarcity of major earnings, chip stocks may trade primarily on:
- memory pricing and allocation news (Micron/Samsung/SK Hynix ecosystem), [20]
- any incremental clarity on AI infrastructure demand and financing structures (especially Nvidia), [21]
- and policy/geopolitical developments affecting supply chains and competition (including China’s integrated-circuit funding push). [22]
Bottom line
Semiconductor stocks are heading into Monday with two powerful forces in tension: tangible, near-term demand pressure that is tightening memory supply—and a rising valuation debate about how long AI infrastructure spending can remain both massive and profitable.
In the next session, investors will be watching less for earnings beats and more for pricing power, capacity constraints, and whether the market treats the memory squeeze as bullish (for chipmakers) or inflationary (for the broader tech stack). [23]
References
1. www.cmegroup.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. indexes.nasdaqomx.com, 5. www.inquirer.com, 6. www.inquirer.com, 7. www.inquirer.com, 8. www.inquirer.com, 9. www.theverge.com, 10. www.theguardian.com, 11. www.theguardian.com, 12. www.livemint.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.tradingview.com, 17. www.cmegroup.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.investopedia.com, 20. www.inquirer.com, 21. www.theguardian.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.inquirer.com
