NEW YORK, Dec. 28, 2025, 2:15 p.m. ET — Market Closed [1]
Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) enters the final, holiday-shortened stretch of the year with its shares hovering around the mid-$580s, leaving investors to weigh two competing narratives: a powerful 2025 rally driven by improving industrial sentiment and data-center-linked power demand, versus familiar cyclical risks tied to construction, mining, interest rates, and tariffs.
With U.S. equity markets closed for the weekend, the next major price discovery for Caterpillar stock arrives when the NYSE’s core trading session reopens Monday at 9:30 a.m. ET. [2]
Caterpillar stock price check: where CAT left off Friday
Caterpillar shares last finished the regular session at $583.00 on Friday, Dec. 26, essentially flat on the day (down about 0.13%) on volume of roughly 954,395 shares, according to the company’s published trade history. [3]
That close leaves CAT stock about 7% below its recent all-time high near $627.50, which the stock set earlier this month. [4]
What’s new in the last 24–48 hours: mostly ownership filings, not fresh corporate headlines
Over the past two days, the most visible “headline flow” around Caterpillar, Inc. stock has been driven less by new operating developments and more by institutional-position updates and stock-screening watchlists that are common during thin holiday news cycles.
Institutional ownership moves showing up in weekend coverage
A series of widely circulated market recaps highlighted position changes in Caterpillar among smaller managers:
- Ellsworth Advisors LLC reported holding 828 shares of Caterpillar as of the quarter ended Sept. 30, 2025, per its Form 13F-HR filing (filed Oct. 16). [5]
- Meyer Handelman Co. also appeared in recent coverage tied to quarterly position reporting. [6]
- Another filing recap described Connective Portfolio Management LLC initiating a position in CAT during the quarter. [7]
- Additional weekend items flagged other small holders’ Caterpillar positions, again tied to quarterly filing updates. [8]
It’s important context, but investors typically treat these 13F-based reads as backward-looking (they reflect quarter-end holdings) rather than real-time buying or selling.
Stock-screening “names to watch” lists included Caterpillar
Caterpillar also showed up on a couple of end-of-week screeners highlighting industrial and mining-related stocks. These lists don’t signal new fundamentals on their own, but they can affect attention and flows—especially when markets are quieter. [9]
The bigger picture: why Caterpillar remains a market bellwether into year-end
Even without fresh company-specific headlines this weekend, Caterpillar remains a widely watched industrial name because it’s often treated as a read-through on “real economy” demand—construction, mining capex, energy infrastructure, and dealer inventory behavior. Reuters has repeatedly described Caterpillar as a bellwether for the global industrial economy. [10]
The demand engine Wall Street keeps coming back to: power for data centers
A major theme supporting the bull case in recent months has been energy and transportation demand tied to electricity generation and infrastructure buildouts—including data centers.
Caterpillar and Vertiv announced a collaboration aimed at expanding integrated power and cooling solutions for AI data centers, targeting improved efficiency, resiliency, and faster deployment timelines. [11]
This “power infrastructure” angle is one reason Caterpillar has been discussed alongside companies exposed to data-center capex, even though it’s not a traditional tech stock.
Backlog and Q3 performance: the foundation under the stock
Caterpillar’s most recent quarterly reporting cycle also reinforced the idea that demand has been resilient in key areas. The company reported third-quarter 2025 sales and revenues of $17.6 billion, up about 10% year over year. [12]
CEO Joe Creed has emphasized disciplined execution and backlog as key pillars; following Q3, Caterpillar’s order backlog was discussed widely as a meaningful support for the medium-term outlook. [13]
Reuters’ coverage of Q3 also pointed to tariff pressure into the year’s final quarter—an issue investors continue to model into margins and pricing power. [14]
Tariffs and cyclicality: the risk side of the CAT stock story
The key bearish debate around Caterpillar stock isn’t whether the company has demand drivers—it’s whether margins can hold up if the cycle softens or if costs outpace pricing.
In late August, Reuters reported that Morgan Stanley analyst Angel Castillo said his concern was that Caterpillar and the construction equipment group had shown “little to no ability” to pass through tariffs, while BofA Securities analyst Michael Feniger flagged tariff headwinds rising through earnings season. [15]
That same Reuters report also captured a range of views:
- Baird Equity’s Mircea (Mig) Dobre estimated tariffs could create additional cost pressure into 2026. [16]
- Brian Langenberg (Langenberg LLC) argued demand can still drive purchases even with tariffs (“annoying, but not a killer”), while Oppenheimer’s Kristen Owen pointed to volume growth as a key catalyst. [17]
Separately, Reuters reported that industrial companies have increasingly leaned on cost actions and pricing to manage tariff uncertainty, quoting Joshua Schachter (Easterly Asset Management) on how industrials have navigated the shifting landscape and Don Marleau (S&P Global) on tariff-cost timing dynamics. [18]
Analyst forecasts and price targets: what Wall Street is implying now
Consensus view: “Moderate Buy,” modest upside on average
One widely followed consensus compilation puts Caterpillar at a “Moderate Buy” with an average 12‑month price target around $616, implying mid-single-digit upside from the current price area, with a broad range of targets (roughly $395 to $730). [19]
Notable bullish targets: $680–$730
A more optimistic long-term framing emerged after Caterpillar’s investor/analyst event: JPMorgan’s Tami Zakaria called the company’s outlook conservative and set a $730 target, while Baird’s Mig Dobre called Caterpillar a “best idea” and pointed to long-run earnings power, with a $680 target cited in Barron’s coverage. [20]
A recent reiteration: Truist stays positive
Truist Securities reiterated a Buy rating with a $729 target in early December coverage, alongside discussion of backlog and the company’s positioning. [21]
Technical and positioning snapshot: what the charts suggest heading into Monday
Technical signals are mixed but generally constructive depending on the methodology used. TipRanks’ technical dashboard flagged an overall “Buy” consensus on its indicator blend, with the RSI sitting near the middle (not extreme) and several moving-average measures still supportive around current levels. [22]
For investors who use technicals as a timing tool, the key takeaway going into the next session is that CAT is holding a higher range after a strong year—often a setup that can lead to either:
- a continuation move if macro data and industrial sentiment stay supportive, or
- a sharper pullback if year-end liquidity and headline risk collide.
If you’re watching Caterpillar stock for income: the dividend dates to know
Caterpillar’s board voted on Dec. 10, 2025 to maintain the quarterly dividend at $1.51 per share, payable Feb. 19, 2026, to shareholders of record at the close of business Jan. 20, 2026, per the company’s investor materials. [23]
What investors should know before the next session
Because markets are closed now, the practical question for CAT stockholders is what could move the stock when trading resumes Monday.
1) Holiday week market structure can amplify moves
This is a holiday-shortened week around New Year’s. Investopedia reports that markets are closed for New Year’s Day (Thursday, Jan. 1, 2026), while stock trading remains normal on New Year’s Eve (Wednesday, Dec. 31); it also notes an early close for bond trading on Dec. 31. [24]
Thin liquidity can make price reactions feel “bigger” than usual—especially in large, widely held Dow components like Caterpillar.
2) The macro calendar matters for cyclicals like Caterpillar
Investors will be tracking scheduled economic releases that can influence rate expectations and industrial sentiment. Investopedia’s week-ahead preview highlights items including pending home sales, Case-Shiller home prices, jobless claims, and Fed minutes. [25]
For Caterpillar, housing and construction-related data points can matter not because they directly determine quarterly results, but because they influence how the market prices “late-cycle” risk in industrials.
3) Keep an eye on the next earnings window
Several earnings calendars estimate Caterpillar’s next report around Jan. 29, 2026 (date not always formally confirmed far in advance, depending on the calendar provider). [26]
As that window approaches, investors often see:
- more visible estimate revisions,
- more sector-level commentary (construction/mining/engines), and
- sharper reactions to macro headlines that affect 2026 demand assumptions.
Bottom line: CAT stock is steady into Monday, with catalysts building just ahead
With markets closed Sunday afternoon, Caterpillar (CAT) stock is essentially “parked” near $583 after Friday’s session, still well above its longer-term moving averages and not far off its recent record highs. [27]
In the last 24–48 hours, there hasn’t been a major new operational catalyst—most of the flow has been institutional ownership updates and screeners. [28]
The next real test is whether the market continues to reward Caterpillar’s data-center power exposure and backlog narrative, or refocuses on cyclical and tariff-related margin risk as the calendar turns and liquidity returns. [29]
References
1. www.nyse.com, 2. www.nyse.com, 3. investors.caterpillar.com, 4. www.tradingview.com, 5. www.sec.gov, 6. www.marketbeat.com, 7. www.marketbeat.com, 8. www.marketbeat.com, 9. www.marketbeat.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. investors.vertiv.com, 12. www.caterpillar.com, 13. www.nasdaq.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.marketbeat.com, 20. www.barrons.com, 21. www.investing.com, 22. www.tipranks.com, 23. www.caterpillar.com, 24. www.investopedia.com, 25. www.investopedia.com, 26. www.nasdaq.com, 27. investors.caterpillar.com, 28. www.marketbeat.com, 29. investors.vertiv.com
