NEW YORK, December 30, 2025, 03:02 ET
- Luke Gromen said he is trimming bitcoin exposure and sees a possible move toward $40,000 in 2026.
- Bitcoin traded near $87,500 early Tuesday in New York as thin year-end liquidity kept prices choppy.
- Gromen cited bitcoin’s lag versus gold, chart “trend damage,” and renewed quantum-computing chatter as headwinds.
Global macro analyst Luke Gromen is trimming his bitcoin exposure and warned the cryptocurrency could slide toward $40,000 in 2026, even as he still expects debt-heavy governments to lean on inflation and weaker currencies. “A move toward the $40,000 range in 2026 is possible,” Gromen said on the RiskReversal podcast. 1
His caution is gaining attention as bitcoin trades in thin year-end conditions and has struggled to hold above $90,000. Investors have also tracked spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows and looked ahead to the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December policy meeting later Tuesday, Investing.com reported. 2
Gromen said he still backs what he calls the “debasement” backdrop — the idea that heavily indebted governments can make debt easier to carry by letting inflation erode purchasing power and by tolerating weaker currencies — but he is less convinced bitcoin is the best expression of that trade right now. He pointed instead to gold and parts of the equity market, FinanceFeeds reported. 3
Bitcoin was last down about 2% at around $87,500 early Tuesday in New York, while ether was down about 2% near $2,960, according to market data.
The episode highlights how quickly sentiment can turn for an asset that often trades like a high-beta proxy for risk appetite, with sharp moves when liquidity thins and positioning shifts.
Gromen has leaned on bitcoin’s performance against gold rather than its dollar price, watching how many ounces of gold it takes to buy one bitcoin. The ratio fell to about 20 ounces per bitcoin, from roughly 40 ounces in December 2024, Cointelegraph reported, a move Gromen views as a sign that gold has reclaimed leadership as a hedge. 4
He also pointed to “trend damage” after bitcoin broke below key moving averages — chart indicators that smooth past prices to show longer-term direction. Breaks below widely watched averages can prompt systematic funds and discretionary traders to cut exposure.
Gromen has also flagged renewed “quantum risk” headlines as a sentiment headwind. The term refers to concerns that future quantum computers could eventually threaten some cryptographic systems, though any timeline remains uncertain and any large-scale shift would take years.
Bitcoin’s fixed supply has helped build its case as a digital scarcity asset, but its short-term path still depends on who is buying and when they are willing to hold through drawdowns.
Corporate buyers have not all stepped back. Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, bought 1,229 bitcoins for $108.8 million between Dec. 22 and Dec. 28 at an average price of $88,568, MarketWatch reported. 5
