- U.S. 30-year yield briefly rose to about 4.88%, the highest since early September
- Benchmark 10-year yield hovered around 4.15% in thin post-holiday trading
- Investors weighed Fed-cut expectations and tariff uncertainty heading into key U.S. data
The yield on the U.S. 30-year Treasury briefly climbed to about 4.88% on Friday, its highest since early September, before easing back as buyers returned in the first trading session of 2026. The benchmark 10-year yield held around 4.15%.
Moves at the long end of the curve matter because Treasury yields feed directly into borrowing costs across the economy, including mortgages, auto loans and corporate debt. They also set a baseline for how investors price risk in stocks and credit.
Bond traders are starting the year after U.S. government debt posted its strongest annual performance since 2020, as markets digested Federal Reserve rate cuts and a run of policy shocks that kept investors wary.
In early New York trading, the 30-year yield was about 4.84% after the earlier jump, while the 10-year stayed near 4.15%, Bloomberg reported. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. 1
Trading was thin following the holidays, and investors are bracing for a batch of U.S. economic releases delayed by a government shutdown. Traders have priced in a 15% chance of a Fed cut this month and expect two more reductions over 2026, Reuters reported, as markets also watched for President Donald Trump’s expected announcement of a successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell later this month. 2
The “priced in” language refers to expectations embedded in interest-rate futures — derivatives tied to the Fed’s policy rate that investors use to hedge and speculate on the path of borrowing costs.
Longer-term yields can rise when investors feel less need for safe-haven assets and see stronger growth ahead, even if shorter maturities stay anchored by expectations for Fed cuts. That dynamic can steepen the yield curve, a common barometer of growth and inflation expectations.
Recent labor-market data kept attention on economic resilience. Initial claims for unemployment benefits fell to 199,000 in the week ended Dec. 27, Bloomberg News reported. “Describing 2025 as ‘resilient’ might be an understatement,” said Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial. 3
The Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Index, a broad gauge of returns across U.S. government bonds, rose 6.3% in 2025 — the biggest annual gain since 2020 — amid shifting tariff headlines and an easing cycle at the Fed, Bloomberg reported. 4
The 10-year note is watched closely because it influences rates on many consumer and business loans, and it is often used as a benchmark for valuing everything from stocks to commercial real estate. CNBC reported the 10-year yield held steady as 2026 began. 5
Broader markets sent mixed signals on risk appetite, with equity futures higher while gold and silver advanced, showing investors are still hedging against policy and growth surprises.
