NEW YORK, Jan 2, 2026, 09:37 ET — Regular session
- Microsoft shares were down 0.8% at $483.62 in early trade.
- Wedbush’s Dan Ives kept a $625 price target and called fiscal 2026 an AI “inflection” year for Microsoft. 1
- Traders are watching U.S. economic data later Friday for signals on rates that can swing megacap tech. 2
Microsoft shares fell 0.8% to $483.62 on Friday, extending a softer tone across megacap technology stocks as the first U.S. session of 2026 got underway.
The move matters because Microsoft is one of the market’s biggest companies by value, and its swings can ripple through the major indexes. Investors are resetting positioning after a year shaped by artificial intelligence optimism and shifting expectations for interest rates. 3
Microsoft is also a bellwether for corporate technology budgets, with its Azure cloud business closely watched for signs of whether companies are moving from testing AI to wider rollouts. That “deployment” question has become a key driver of day-to-day sentiment in large-cap tech. 3
Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives struck an upbeat tone in a recent client note, framing Microsoft’s fiscal 2026 (FY26) as a pivotal period for AI adoption. “FY26 for Microsoft remains the true inflection year of AI growth,” Ives wrote. 1
Ives listed Microsoft as his top AI pick for 2026 and kept a $625 price target — an analyst’s estimate of where a stock could trade — after the shares gained about 16% in 2025, according to Business Insider. 1
Other growth heavyweights were also lower. The Nasdaq 100 tracker Invesco QQQ was down about 0.8%, while Nvidia slid 0.5% and Amazon fell 0.7% in early trading.
The early dip followed a firmer tone in futures before the opening bell, with traders trying to stabilize after late-2025 weakness. Investors were also looking ahead to scheduled U.S. releases on manufacturing activity and construction spending later Friday. 2
On the company front, Microsoft has continued to lean into security and compliance features for business customers. TechRepublic reported that Microsoft Teams will enable stronger messaging safety defaults on Jan. 12, including blocks on risky file types and malicious links. 4
At current levels, Microsoft trades at roughly 37 times earnings — a premium valuation that can amplify reactions to any shift in cloud growth expectations. Bulls argue that broader enterprise deployments of AI features can keep demand resilient even if the macro backdrop stays uneven. 1
Investors are also starting to look ahead to Microsoft’s next results for a clearer read on cloud demand and AI-related momentum. Microsoft has not announced its next earnings release date, though third-party calendars such as Yahoo Finance list a late-January report after the close. 5
Rate moves remain a day-to-day driver for megacap tech, where higher yields can pressure valuations by raising the discount rate investors apply to future cash flows. Pre-market reports showed the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield around 4.16%. 6
For now, traders are watching whether selling pressure in big tech fades as the opening session of 2026 develops, or whether rotation away from richly valued U.S. technology resumes. Microsoft’s stock is likely to stay sensitive to any change in expectations around enterprise AI spending and the pace of real-world deployments. 3
