NEW YORK, January 2, 2026, 10:37 ET
- Rocket Lab shares were down about 2.5% in early U.S. trading on Friday.
- A bearish investor note this week flagged persistent negative operating cash flow and heavy spending needs.
- Investors are weighing the timeline for Rocket Lab’s larger Neutron rocket against intensifying competition and defense work.
Rocket Lab shares fell in early U.S. trading on Friday as investors reassessed how long the space company can keep funding growth before it turns into cash. The stock was down 2.5% at $67.99 at 9:37 a.m. EST, MarketWatch data showed. 1
The pullback comes as Rocket Lab enters 2026 with rising expectations that it can expand beyond small-rocket launches into higher-value defense and satellite work. That shift matters because customers and investors are increasingly focused on delivery timelines and cash discipline after a strong run in space-related stocks.
Rocket Lab’s challenge is straightforward: prove it can scale revenue without relying heavily on new financing. The company is building out new manufacturing capacity and developing a larger rocket, moves that typically require years of upfront spending before they contribute meaningfully to earnings.
Rafa F. Oliver, a CFA charterholder who writes for Seeking Alpha, said he recommends selling Rocket Lab, arguing that “the stock is burning operating cash flows.” Oliver cited the company’s “capital-intensive” profile and said profitability remains elusive despite revenue growth. 2
Operating cash flow tracks whether a company’s core business generates cash or consumes it. Persistent negative operating cash flow can force companies to raise money through debt or stock sales, which can increase financial risk or dilute existing shareholders.
Rocket Lab has been working to broaden its business beyond launches, which are lumpy and depend on schedule execution. In a recent PBS NewsHour segment, the broadcaster said Rocket Lab expects its Neutron rocket to reach the launch pad at Wallops Island, Virginia, in the first quarter of 2026, with launch timing dependent on qualification testing. 3
Neutron is Rocket Lab’s planned medium-lift vehicle, aimed at bigger payloads than its current Electron rocket and a wider set of government and commercial missions. The market is dominated by SpaceX, whose Falcon 9 has set the pace on cost and cadence, leaving smaller rivals fighting for niche missions and responsive launches.
Rocket Lab’s stock has also moved with broader sentiment toward publicly traded space names. A Nasdaq.com market wrap earlier this week flagged mixed trading in peers including Planet Labs and Intuitive Machines, underscoring how contract headlines and execution updates can swing the group. 4
Defense work remains a key pillar of the bull case. In December, the U.S. Space Development Agency placed a $3.5 billion order for 72 satellites, Reuters reported corroborating the agency’s expansion of its missile-tracking network, with Rocket Lab among the companies receiving awards. 5
Investors are now looking for concrete progress: hardware deliveries, test milestones, and launches that stay on schedule. Any slippage on Neutron or delays in defense programs can quickly reprice expectations, given how much future growth is baked into space-sector valuations.
Rocket Lab has described itself as more than a launch provider, with growing revenue from spacecraft components and satellite systems. That diversification can help smooth results, but it also adds manufacturing complexity and working-capital needs that can pressure cash.
