NEW YORK, Jan 2, 2026, 11:25 ET — Regular session
- Rocket Lab shares were up about 1.4% in late-morning U.S. trade.
- A fresh bearish note revived debate over cash burn as the company scales up.
- Investors are watching for updates on Neutron progress and the next earnings window.
Rocket Lab shares rose 1.4% to $70.75 by 11:12 a.m. ET, after a volatile stretch that left the stock below its recent 52-week high.
The move matters because Rocket Lab has become one of the most actively traded U.S.-listed space names, and expectations are high heading into 2026. Bulls point to growing defense work, while skeptics focus on how quickly the company can narrow losses as it builds out its next rocket program.
That tension is front and center early in the year, when investors tend to re-price risk and scrutinize cash needs. For Rocket Lab, the debate often comes down to execution: turning a growing order book into predictable cash generation.
The broader tape was mixed on Friday, with the Dow Jones industrial average edging up while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were slightly lower. 1
A bearish note published on Dec. 31 by Rafa F. Oliver, a chartered financial analyst, argued the stock was “burning operating cash flows,” and flagged dilution and execution risk. Oliver also pegged an equity fair value of $12.7 a share in his base case.
Operating cash flow is the cash a company generates — or uses — in its core business before financing. When it is negative, it means the business is consuming cash, which can force a company to raise money or cut spending if the gap persists.
Optimists counter that Rocket Lab has been moving deeper into U.S. national-security space work, which can come with longer-duration programs and bigger contract values than commercial small-satellite launches. In December, the company said it had been selected for an order worth up to $816 million from the U.S. Space Development Agency, part of the Space Force. 2
Investors are also watching the timeline for Neutron, Rocket Lab’s larger, reusable rocket under development, because it targets a broader slice of the launch market than the company’s Electron vehicle. Competitors include private SpaceX, while defense primes such as Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman remain central to the ecosystem of government satellite programs.
Traders say the stock’s swings have made round-number levels matter again. With shares hovering around $70, the late-December peak near $80 is the obvious marker on the upside, after the stock’s sharp run over the past year.
Volume has also stayed elevated, a sign that both short-term traders and longer-term investors are active in the name. That can amplify moves when sentiment shifts on news or commentary.
The next major scheduled checkpoint is earnings. Rocket Lab has not confirmed its next reporting date, but market calendars estimate a late-February release, which would put guidance and cash-flow commentary back in focus.
Until then, investors are likely to watch for any updates on Neutron milestones and the pace of new government bookings — and whether the stock’s recent rebound holds as the broader market digests the first trading days of 2026.
