NEW YORK, Jan 3, 2026, 06:02 ET — Market closed
- U.S. President Donald Trump said U.S. forces struck Venezuela overnight and captured President Nicolas Maduro. 1
- Investors are bracing for a renewed geopolitical risk premium in oil and a risk-off test when futures reopen Sunday and cash markets return Monday. 2
- Oil ended Friday slightly lower, with Brent at $60.75 a barrel and U.S. crude at $57.32, leaving prices near levels traders see as sensitive to supply headlines. 3
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Saturday the United States carried out a “large scale strike” against Venezuela and that President Nicolas Maduro and his wife were captured and flown out of the country. 1
The move matters to markets because Venezuela is an oil producer with exports concentrated in heavy crude, a grade that is harder for refineries to replace quickly. Any disruption can feed into oil prices and, by extension, inflation expectations and interest-rate bets. 2
It also hits at a fragile moment for liquidity: U.S. stock markets are shut for the weekend, with the first broad price discovery expected when oil futures reopen Sunday evening and when global cash markets reopen on Monday. 2
Reuters witnesses reported explosions, aircraft and smoke over Caracas for about 90 minutes from around 2 a.m. local time, and Venezuela’s government declared a national emergency and mobilized troops. Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino said Venezuela would resist foreign troops and was compiling information about dead and injured people. 1
On Friday — before the strike — Wall Street ended mixed in thin post-holiday trade, with the Dow up 0.66% and the S&P 500 up 0.19%, while the Nasdaq slipped 0.03%. Brent settled at $60.75 a barrel and U.S. crude at $57.32, and spot gold rose 0.36% as the dollar index gained 0.19%. 3
Energy-linked equities closed higher in the last session, tracking oil’s steady start to the year even as crude prices stayed near the low-$60s. Exxon Mobil ended at $122.65 and Chevron at $155.90, both up around 2% on the day, while oil-services names outperformed.
Oil market participants say the initial price reaction may depend less on the headlines than on whether exports are materially interrupted. Vandana Hari, chief executive of Singapore-based Vanda Insights, told The National the immediate implications looked minimal — “not much beyond another uptick in the Venezuela risk premium.” (A risk premium is the extra price traders build in to cover the chance of disruptions.) 2
Venezuela produces about 1.1 million barrels a day, mostly heavy crude, with most exports shipped to China and India, Rystad Energy analysis cited by The National showed. That blend matters because heavy crude is not easily replaced by lighter grades, which can tighten certain refinery feedstocks even if global supply is ample. 2
Pressure on Venezuelan output has already been building. The Trump administration has stepped up a campaign against Venezuelan oil exports through a maritime blockade, and Energy Aspects analyst Amrita Sen told The National that prior actions were already pushing production down by around 25%. 2
Beyond crude, investors will watch whether the Venezuela shock prompts a broader “risk-off” rotation — a shift into perceived safe havens such as the dollar and gold — or stays contained to energy. Friday’s tape showed a firmer dollar and higher gold, but that move preceded the Venezuela strike. 3
Before next session, the key market test is the Sunday night reopen for Brent and WTI futures and whether prices gap above Friday’s settlements of $60.75 and $57.32, respectively. Traders will be watching for confirmation of damage, export interruptions and any escalation signals that could widen the oil risk premium further. 3
The next catalyst is political: Trump said he would provide more details at an 11 a.m. press conference at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida. Macro traders are also looking ahead to a batch of delayed U.S. economic releases next week, including labor market data, which could reshape expectations for Federal Reserve policy at the start of 2026. 1
