LONDON, January 4, 2026, 14:39 ET — Market closed
- Oil-linked UK shares are in focus after Venezuela headlines and an OPEC+ decision on supply
- FTSE 100 ended Friday at 9,951.14 after briefly topping 10,000; defence led, property lagged
- UK services PMI is due Tuesday; U.S. payrolls on Jan. 9 are the next big global macro test
Oil is the first read for London equities at Monday’s Jan. 5 open after the United States seized Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and President Donald Trump said Washington would take control of the oil-producing nation. OPEC+ — the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia — said it would keep first-quarter output steady. “The political transition in Venezuela adds another major layer of uncertainty,” said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy. 1
That matters because the FTSE 100 is dominated by multinationals — including oil firms and miners — that tend to move with crude and broad risk appetite. The index heads into the week just under the 10,000-point level after ending Friday up 0.2% at 9,951.14; it briefly hit 10,046.25, according to Alliance News. 2
On Friday, defence and aerospace shares led gains, with Rolls-Royce up 3.6%, Melrose Industries up 3.5% and BAE Systems up 2.2%, while construction and real estate stocks fell after Nationwide said house prices slid 0.4% in December and annual growth slowed to 0.6% in 2025. The FTSE 100 gained nearly 22% in 2025, Reuters reported, outperforming Europe’s STOXX 600 and the S&P 500 and reflecting a diversified mix with limited direct exposure to artificial intelligence. 3
Sterling is also on the radar after it edged down 0.18% to $1.3445 on Friday, following a 7.7% rise in 2025, as investors positioned for a heavy week of U.S. economic data. A firmer dollar can cushion UK multinationals that report in pounds but earn abroad, while squeezing overseas returns for sterling-based investors. 4
The domestic calendar remains thin early in the week, but recent survey data underscored how sensitive UK-facing names are to signs of demand. The S&P Global manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) — a survey gauge where readings above 50 signal expansion — rose to 50.6 in December but undershot a “flash” estimate of 51.2, and a final services PMI is due Tuesday. 5
Political headlines could add another layer after Prime Minister Keir Starmer said Britain should consider closer alignment with the European Union’s single market on an “issue-by-issue” basis if it was in the national interest. Investors will watch how sterling and domestically exposed stocks react if the debate shifts from rhetoric to policy detail. 6
Beyond the UK, traders are preparing for the U.S. jobs report on Jan. 9 and commodity index rebalancing starting Jan. 8 — benchmark weight changes that can force some funds to buy or sell futures, amplifying moves in oil and metals. Reuters’ “Take Five” column said optimism after 2025’s strong run remains intact, while warning sentiment-driven trades can turn quickly on small shocks. 7
On the charts, 10,000 is the level traders will talk about first — a round-number resistance point where selling often emerges if momentum fades. Holding above it would reinforce the breakout narrative; slipping back toward the 9,900–9,950 band would put the index back into its recent range.
But the FTSE’s sector mix cuts both ways: an oil pop can lift majors such as Shell and BP, while a sharp reversal would hit the same names and knock the index off its highs. Traders finish the early-week checklist with Tuesday’s UK services PMI and Friday’s U.S. payrolls for fresh direction on growth and rates.
