SYDNEY, Jan 4, 2026, 16:15 ET — Market closed
Shares of National Australia Bank Ltd (NAB.AX) ended Friday at A$42.40, up 0.21%, after a thin start to the new year kept investors focused on the next run of interest-rate signals.
The timing matters because Australia’s big banks have become a quick read on where investors think the Reserve Bank of Australia is headed. The next marker comes on Jan. 7, when the Australian Bureau of Statistics is scheduled to publish its Consumer Price Index for November. 1
Rate expectations feed straight into bank earnings. Higher rates can widen net interest margin — the gap between what a bank earns on loans and pays on deposits — but they can also push up late repayments if households and businesses strain.
On the company front, NAB said in a Jan. 2 ASX notice that the aggregated voting shares over which its associated entities can control voting or disposal under an exemption granted by ASIC slipped to 583,819 ordinary shares, or 0.0190% of the class, from 637,537 shares, or 0.0208%, in its prior notice. The filing also showed no net economic exposure beyond those shares under the exemption. 2
Australian bank stocks helped lift the broader market on Friday, with financials rising 0.4% as the S&P/ASX 200 climbed 0.2% in a session where turnover ran at about 40% of the 30-day average. “When uncertainty eases, even slightly, money tends to flow first into the big banks,” said Greg Boland, market strategy consultant at Moomoo Securities Australia. 3
Among peers, Westpac Banking Corp rose 0.9%, Commonwealth Bank of Australia gained 0.3% and ANZ Group added 0.2%. 4
NAB is about 5% below its 52-week high of A$44.67 and about 32% above its 52-week low of A$32.19, Morningstar data on the stock shows. 5
The next company catalyst is NAB’s first-quarter trading update in mid-February. Investors will be watching business lending momentum, deposit pricing and any shift in bad-debt charges as competition stays tight.
But a hotter inflation print or stickier wage pressures could push markets toward more RBA tightening, lifting funding costs and sharpening worries around credit quality. That is the downside case for bank stocks that investors often buy for dividends when volatility fades.
Markets now have two clear dates to trade around: the RBA’s policy decision on Feb. 3 and NAB’s first-quarter trading update on Feb. 18.
