NEW YORK, Jan 4, 2026, 17:16 ET
- NOAA forecast a minor geomagnetic storm on Sunday, a level that can boost aurora chances at high latitudes.
- The U.K. Met Office said a coronal mass ejection could bring G1–G2 storm intervals, with aurora potentially visible in northern Scotland.
- The nearly full “Wolf Moon” is expected to wash out many faint meteors from the Quadrantid shower, observers said.
U.S. space weather forecasters expect a minor geomagnetic storm on Sunday, a development that can brighten the northern night sky with auroras, also known as the northern lights.
The timing matters because skywatchers are already dealing with a bright, near-full Wolf Moon that can wash out faint sky targets. Any aurora strong enough to punch through that glare would be more noticeable across northern viewing zones.
The forecast also matters beyond stargazing. Geomagnetic storms, driven by bursts of solar material, can disrupt radio communications and affect satellites, adding operational risk for aviation and space-based systems.
NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center said its latest outlook called for G1, or “minor,” storming on Jan. 4 as a coronal mass ejection (CME) — a cloud of charged particles ejected from the sun — passes Earth. The agency projected a peak Kp index of 5, a 0-to-9 measure of geomagnetic disturbance, during the 21:00–00:00 UTC window. 1
Across the Atlantic, the U.K. Met Office said a CME arrival on Sunday was “likely” and that G1–G2 storm intervals were expected, with a slight chance of a stronger G3 period. In its aurora guidance, the agency said visible aurora could extend into northern parts of the United Kingdom, mainly Scotland, but warned moonlight would limit what people can see. 2
Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, another major public forecaster in the space-weather network, also pointed to heightened conditions. Its space weather service said it expected G0–G1 geomagnetic activity for Jan. 4, with solar wind speeds forecast to become “very strong” over the UT day. 3
Moonlight is the bigger spoiler for many viewers hoping for meteors. “The biggest enemy of enjoying a meteor shower is the full moon,” Mike Shanahan, planetarium director at Liberty Science Center, said in comments reported this week. 4
That warning lands as the Quadrantid meteor shower — one of the year’s early highlights — competes with the Wolf Moon’s glare. The shower can still produce occasional bright streaks, but observers typically need dark skies to pick up more of the fainter trails.
For aurora hunters, forecasts hinge on more than storm “strength” on paper. A CME’s magnetic orientation on arrival can sharply limit or amplify Earth’s response, and a G1 forecast often keeps the best displays near higher latitudes and darker horizons.
Conditions may ease after Sunday if solar wind speeds and the magnetic field settle, but agencies said unsettled intervals can linger into early week. Skywatchers tracking real-time changes can monitor NOAA’s aurora dashboard for updated probabilities and visibility guidance. 5
