NEW YORK, July 18, 2026, 15:05 EDT
- U.S. markets remained closed on Saturday. Shares of Newmont ended Friday at $89.70, marking a 5.9% weekly decline.
- The $6 billion buyback approved in April represents approximately 6.3% of Friday’s $95.8 billion market value.
- Q2 results are due after markets close on Thursday. Consensus preliminary earnings are expected at $2.00 per share, reflecting a 31% decrease from Q1.
Newmont’s withdrawal altered the calculation for capital returns.
Based on Friday’s closing price, April’s gross authorization represents an estimated 66.9 million shares, or approximately 6.3% of the disclosed share total. This calculation does not factor in second-quarter buybacks or any future price changes.
The significance of scale is underscored by free cash flow for the first quarter hitting $3.144 billion, representing approximately 3.3% of Friday’s market cap. A single standout quarter delivered over half of the total gross authorization. The free cash flow figure is a non-GAAP metric.
Newmont posted robust margins in the first quarter, with realized gold prices at $4,900 per ounce and a by-product AISC of $1,029. Lower sustaining capital contributed to the result. Spot bullion was trading near $4,011 late Friday, about 18% less than the realized price reported. The reporting periods are not the same.
Management previously indicated a weaker operating quarter. Newmont anticipates 23% of yearly production in Q2, suggesting around 1.22 million ounces, which is about 6% below Q1. The company also projected a significant increase in unit costs.
Chief Executive Natascha Viljoen stated in April that Newmont was “well on track to achieve our 2026 guidance.” The company’s report on Thursday will serve as a test of that assertion. newmont.com
Mining stocks deepened bullion’s weekly decline.
| Asset | July 10 close | July 17 close | Weekly move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newmont | $95.29 | $89.70 | -5.9% |
| VanEck Gold Miners ETF NYSEARCA:GDX | $75.53 | $71.32 | -5.6% |
| Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. NYSE:AEM | $146.87 | $136.97 | -6.7% |
| Comex front-month gold | $4,104.10/oz | $4,012.70/oz | -2.23% |
Newmont dropped roughly 2.6 times more than Comex gold, though its decline was still in line with the overall miners’ fund. Agnico posted an even steeper loss.
Gold rose on Friday but was still set to end the week about 2.6% lower. Brent crude surged approximately 16%. Chris Gaffney of EverBank pointed to “a stronger U.S. dollar and higher global inflation fears.” Reuters
Oil plays a dual role. It can pressure gold by affecting interest rate forecasts, and it also increases mining expenses directly.
Interim CFO Peter Wexler gave a figure for direct exposure, stating that a $10 move per barrel alters costs by approximately $60 million. This amounts to about $12 per ounce of AISC.
Analysts on average expect Q2 earnings of $2.00 per share, with projections ranging from $1.84 to $2.17. The mean estimate is 31% lower than Q1’s $2.90.
Newmont is set to release its results following Thursday’s market close, with a conference call scheduled for 5:30 p.m. EDT. Investors will focus on free cash flow, share buybacks and cost forecasts.
The balance sheet provides flexibility. Newmont finished March holding $8.8 billion in cash and $3.2 billion in net cash. However, the authorization remains optional and does not have a set expiration.
Risks: Gold prices may fall further if interest rates or the dollar increase. Oil, declining ore quality, or operational disruptions could raise costs per unit. Soft outlooks could reduce share buybacks even though liquidity remains strong.
The stock has already dropped more than gold. Newmont is trading 33.5% beneath its January peak, while Comex gold has declined 24.6% from its own high. Thursday will reveal whether that gap is warranted.
