NEW YORK, August 7, 2026, 18:07 EDT — U.S. markets have ended regular trading.
- Shares of USA Rare Earth finished at $19.33, gaining 11.0% on Friday and advancing 29.3% over the past week.
- Second-quarter earnings are set to be released after Monday’s market close, with a call scheduled at 5 p.m. EDT.
- Friday’s valuation put the pending Serra Verde transaction at a notional $2.75 billion.
USA Rare Earth NASDAQ:USAR surged 11.0% to $19.33 on Friday, finishing the week up 29.3%. The rally recouped much of the market capitalisation tied to its proposed acquisition of Serra Verde.
The transaction involves 126.849 million fixed shares and $300 million in cash. Based on Friday’s closing prices, the combined package had an indicative value of $2.752 billion, which is just 2.8% lower than the initial reference value of $2.831 billion.
Monday’s investor test now involves more than a standard earnings review. Focus will likely be on cash consumption, the timing of deals, and specifics on integration. The company is set to report after market close and will hold a call at 5 p.m. EDT.
Serra Verde adjusted consideration review
| Component | April reference | Friday mark |
|---|---|---|
| USAR share value | $19.95 | $19.33 |
| Number of new USAR shares | 126.849 million | 126.849 million |
| Stock-based payment | $2.531 billion | $2.452 billion |
| Cash payment | $300 million | $300 million |
| Estimated combined total | $2.831 billion | $2.752 billion |
The Friday figure is a representative calculation rather than a purchase-accounting estimate. It does not include closing adjustments.
Friday saw gains reach further than USAR. Shares of MP Materials NYSE:MP climbed 7.6% following quarterly earnings that surpassed forecasts. The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.3% as softer employment figures cooled expectations of further rate increases. USAR, however, maintained weekly outperformance versus both.
Friday performance and weekly results
| Instrument | Friday close | Friday change | Weekly change |
|---|---|---|---|
| USA Rare Earth NASDAQ:USAR | $19.33 | up 11.0% | up 29.3% |
| MP Materials NYSE:MP | $51.11 | rising 7.6% | gaining 23.5% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,690.62 | increasing 1.3% | advancing 5.2% |
Weekly movements reflect closing prices from July 31 and August 7.
MP set the most transparent performance standard, disclosing revenue of $108.5 million along with adjusted EBITDA of $28.5 million. NdPr sales increased by 127% to reach 1,006 metric tons. Chief Executive James Litinsky pointed to “ramping NdPr production and sales volumes.” MP Materials
Current operations overview
| Metric | USA Rare Earth | MP Materials |
|---|---|---|
| Latest reported period | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 |
| Revenue | $5.7 million | $108.5 million |
| GAAP net loss | $67.0 million | $20.3 million |
| Cash and liquid investments | $1.750 billion in cash | $1.453 billion |
| Operating base | Only generating revenue from Less Common Metals; no revenue reported from magnet or mineral production | 840 MT NdPr output; 1,006 MT sold |
The timeframes vary since USAR is set to release its second-quarter results on Monday.
In the first quarter, USAR reported limited revenue, generating $5.7 million, all sourced from Less Common Metals. The company’s operations consumed $18.5 million in cash, with an additional $38.6 million used in investing activities. USAR’s balance sheet showed $1.75 billion.
Washington introduced new sector backing on Friday, with the administration unveiling about $3 billion for vital minerals and battery initiatives. USAR was not listed among the recipients. The company’s current arrangement provides access to as much as $277 million in funding and $1.3 billion in senior loan facilities, contingent on meeting certain milestones.
USA Rare Earth stated in July that it expects the Serra Verde merger to complete by the end of August. Sellers are set to hold around 34% of the new entity. Executive Chair Michael Blitzer said the company was “shifting to execution.” GlobeNewswire
Serra Verde is currently extracting rare earths in Brazil. The mine aims to reach approximately 6,400 metric tons of oxide production each year by 2027. All output is committed under a 15-year contract that ensures fixed pricing.
Highlighted analyst recommendations
| Firm | Most recent action | Rating | Target | Potential gain from $19.33 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Needham | July 22, 2026 | Buy | $33 | 70.7% |
| Roth Capital | July 21, 2026 | Buy | $30 | 55.2% |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | May 14, 2026 | Buy | $35 | 81.1% |
| Wedbush | May 12, 2026 | Buy | $35 | 81.1% |
Upside numbers are determined using Friday’s closing price, rather than predictions from analysts on deal closure.
The four targets represent a potential gain of 55% to 81% from Friday’s level. The most recent move came from Needham, which issued a Buy rating at $33 on July 22.
Looking ahead to the coming week, investors will focus on three key disclosures: Less Common Metals sales, overall cash outflows, and the timing of the Serra Verde deal close. Progress at Stillwater on magnets will also be in focus. Thursday’s update did not include any advance second-quarter numbers.
Risks: Serra Verde may close later than expected or not close at all. Issuing fixed shares would dilute current shareholders. Returns could be affected by integration expenses, project delays, volatile rare-earth prices, or funding tied to milestones. USAR anticipates ongoing cash outflows as it expands operations.
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