
USA Rare Earth, Inc. jumped 12.57% on Friday. The close was $19.26, on about 21.2 million shares traded. Yet the stock remained below its $20.00 close one week earlier. The late rebound restored momentum, not proof.
| Firm | View | Target |
|---|---|---|
| Benchmark | Buy | $45 |
| Northland | Buy | $45 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Overweight | $40 |
| Canaccord | Buy | $32 |
| Roth MKM | Buy | $30 |
| Q2 metric | 2026 | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $108.5M | +89% |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $28.5M | +$41.0M |
| NdPr production | 840 MT | +41% |
| NdPr sales | 1,006 MT | +127% |
| REO production | 11,072 MT | -16% |
| Measure | Value | Vs. close |
|---|---|---|
| Low target | $58.00 | -3.4% |
| Average target | $75.38 | +25.5% |
| Median target | $75.00 | +24.9% |
| High target | $100.00 | +66.5% |
| Consensus | Strong Buy | 18 analysts |
Friday's 9.14% rebound left MP only 2.26% higher for the week. The operating case is improving, but the earnings bridge remains policy-sensitive: Q2 price-protection income equaled nearly two-thirds of adjusted EBITDA.
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Sources: Nasdaq market data; MP Materials Q2 2026 results; S&P Global analyst data via StockAnalysis, last updated August 19, 2026. Adjusted EBITDA is non-GAAP. Percentages are calculated from reported figures and may vary slightly due to rounding.
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