NEW YORK, August 1, 2026, 18:07 EDT — U.S. markets have closed for the weekend.
- MP ended Friday at $41.37, slipping 0.7%, with trading volume 30% higher than usual.
- The company reported Q1 price-protection income of $42.3 million, compared to adjusted EBITDA of $36.6 million.
- MP Materials will report Q2 earnings after Thursday’s closing bell. Analysts expect consensus EPS of minus $0.01.
MP Materials Corp. NYSE:MP heads into earnings week with a single figure at the center of discussions. In the first quarter, price-protection agreement (PPA) income reached 115.5% of adjusted EBITDA.
The backing is based on a contract and lasts for ten years. The report due on Thursday will reveal if the operating units have reduced the difference.
Sales of separated NdPr saw an increase of more than twofold in Q1. Magnetics revenue rose by four times, while consolidated operating profit remained in the red.
Key critical-minerals stocks for the week ended July 31
| Company | July 24 close | July 31 close | Weekly change |
|---|---|---|---|
| MP Materials NYSE:MP | $41.30 | $41.37 | up 0.2% |
| USA Rare Earth NASDAQ:USAR | $14.15 | $14.95 | up 5.7% |
| Energy Fuels (NYSEAMERICAN:UUUU) | $11.30 | $11.44 | up 1.2% |
| Critical Metals NASDAQ:CRML | $5.81 | $5.49 | down 5.5% |
The comparison reflects closing prices from July 24 and July 31.
MP trailed behind USA Rare Earth and Energy Fuels during the week. The company led Critical Metals, closing nearly unchanged from its starting point.
Although the week ended quietly, daily volatility was high. MP dropped 7.7% on Wednesday and surged 9.3% Thursday. Trading volume on Friday was 30% higher than its 65-day average.
Operating gains in the first quarter were widespread.
Operating results for the first quarter
| Metric | Q1 2026 | Q1 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue | $90.6 million | $60.8 million | +49% |
| PPA income | $42.3 million | — | N/M |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $36.6 million | -$2.7 million | N/M |
| NdPr sales volume | 1,006 MT | 464 MT | +117% |
| Magnetics revenue | $21.1 million | $5.2 million | +306% |
The figures reported by the company have not been audited.
However, PPA income was $5.7 million higher than consolidated adjusted EBITDA. According to an initial estimate that is not an official company measure, pre-PPA adjusted EBITDA is approximately negative $5.7 million.
CEO James Litinsky stated in May that “MP Materials delivered record NdPr production and sales.” The results for Q2 will show if those records resulted in earnings with reduced reliance on support. SEC
According to FactSet Research Systems NYSE:FDS, data indicate a significant three-month adjustment, with Q2 shifting from a profit of four cents to a loss of one cent.
Consensus changes to EPS estimates
| Period | Three months ago | One month ago | Current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $0.04 | $0.01 | -$0.01 |
| Q3 2026 | $0.11 | $0.04 | $0.02 |
| FY 2026 | $0.25 | $0.18 | $0.11 |
Market outlook stays positive. Fifteen analysts give MP a Buy rating, while four assign it Overweight. There are no Hold, Underweight, or Sell ratings.
JPMorgan Chase NYSE:JPM analyst Bill Peterson lowered his price target to $60 from $75 on Wednesday, while maintaining an Overweight rating. The consensus median target is still $77.50.
The policy backstop is still significant.
Economics of defense partnerships
| Backstop or milestone | Announced term | Duration or timing |
|---|---|---|
| NdPr pricing floor | $110 per kilogram | 10-year period |
| 10X magnet buying commitment | 100% of production | 10 years post-construction |
| Defense-preferred equity and warrants | 15% when converted and exercised | Calculated from July 9, 2025 share count |
| Projected total U.S. magnet output | 10,000 MT | Commissioning anticipated in 2028 |
The floor restricts exposure to commodity prices but does not eliminate risks related to the plant, costs, or timing.
On July 15, short interest rose to 28.4 million shares, marking a 5.96% increase compared with the previous report. The Financial Times said on Thursday that funds had increased bearish positions throughout the sector, among them MP.
This week’s focus centers on four key metrics: PPA income, NdPr sales, magnetics EBITDA, and cash consumption. The company is set to deliver results after Thursday’s market close, with a conference call scheduled for 17:00 EDT.
A more balanced profit composition would address the key valuation issue. Another quarter relying on support would leave the matter unresolved.
Risks: Fluctuations in rare-earth prices, project delays, and rising costs might hamper progress. Government funding depends on appropriations. Volatility could be heightened by preferred conversion and significant short interest.
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