LONDON, Jan 5, 2026, 09:46 GMT — Regular session
- NatWest shares touched a new 52-week high of 663.4p at the open before easing.
- Focus is shifting to the Bank of England’s Feb. 5 rate decision and UK inflation data due Jan. 21.
- NatWest’s Feb. 13 full-year results are set to bring 2026 guidance and new 2028 targets.
NatWest Group (NWG.L) shares set a new 52-week high in early London trade on Monday, before paring gains as the broader market steadied. The stock was down 0.03% at 657.4 pence by 0932 GMT.
The move matters because it keeps the FTSE 100 lender at the top of its recent range just as investors line up the first big catalysts of 2026. NatWest is due to publish full-year 2025 results on Feb. 13, when it plans to introduce 2026 guidance and new targets for 2028.
Interest-rate expectations are the near-term swing factor for UK bank shares. The Bank of England’s Bank Rate is 3.75% and the next policy decision is scheduled for Feb. 5, while official inflation data are due on Jan. 21.
On the tape, NWG opened at 663.4 pence and traded between 655.0 pence and 663.4 pence in the first 90 minutes, according to London pricing data. Turnover was about 957,000 shares by 0932 GMT versus an average daily volume of about 9 million.
At these levels, investors are testing how resilient bank profitability can be as borrowing costs ease. Net interest margin — the gap between what a bank earns on loans and pays on deposits — tends to tighten when rates fall and lenders compete harder on pricing.
NatWest said in its latest outlook statement it expects 2025 income excluding notable items to be around 16.3 billion pounds and to achieve a return on tangible equity above 18%. Return on tangible equity is a profitability measure that compares profit with shareholders’ equity after stripping out intangibles such as goodwill.
Analyst expectations look more compressed after the stock’s run. Data compiled by Investing.com put the average 12-month price target at about 663 pence, broadly in line with Monday’s early high, with estimates spanning 550 pence to 765 pence.
Competition in mortgages is another watchpoint. HSBC cut mortgage rates on some products at the start of 2026, a move that could prompt peers to respond and weigh on lending margins.
The main uncertainty is whether inflation re-accelerates and forces a rethink on the pace of rate cuts, a backdrop that can jar bank valuations and credit assumptions. “You need a pin that pricks the bubble and it will probably come through tighter money,” said Trevor Greetham, head of multi-asset at Royal London Asset Management, describing the risk of inflation pushing rates higher again. 1
For NatWest, the next checkpoints are the UK inflation print on Jan. 21, the Bank of England’s Feb. 5 rate decision and, most directly, the bank’s Feb. 13 results and guidance update.
