Sydney, Jan 6, 2026, 17:45 AEDT — Market closed
- Shares ended higher after paring early gains.
- The guidance reset and pending cost update remain the key swing factors.
- The next catalyst is the Dec-quarter release on Jan. 22.
Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) shares closed up 0.8% at A$25.15 on Tuesday. 1
The miner last week cut its FY26 production guidance — its forecast for annual output — to 1.6 million-1.7 million ounces from 1.7 million-1.85 million after a softer December quarter. Northern Star put gold sales for the quarter at about 348,000 ounces, taking first-half sales to about 729,000 ounces, and said lower sales were expected to weigh on costs, with revised cost guidance — its expected costs per ounce — due with the Jan. 22 quarterly results. A primary crusher failure at its KCGM operations in Kalgoorlie curtailed plant throughput for about four weeks, it said. 2
Gold prices firmed on Tuesday, offering some support to miners. Spot gold was up 0.5% at $4,469.96 an ounce after a nearly 3% jump in the previous session, with traders focused on U.S. rate-cut expectations and the payrolls report due Friday. 3
On a guidance call on Monday, CEO Stuart Tonkin said the company was targeting a stronger second half after December disruptions. “This positions the group to deliver second half production of 871,000 to 971,000 ounces,” he said. 4
Northern Star opened at A$25.90 and traded between A$24.81 and A$25.90, with about 5.8 million shares changing hands, according to market data. The stock is down about 6% from its Dec. 31 close of A$26.73, and traders have been watching the post-downgrade low of A$23.67 hit on Jan. 2. 5
Investors are weighing how quickly operations can return to steadier run-rates across Northern Star’s production centres. Any sign that disruption is spilling into the March quarter would keep pressure on the stock’s risk premium.
With first-half gold sales of about 729,000 ounces, the revised full-year range implies a heavier-weighted second half and little margin for fresh interruptions. That arithmetic helps explain why the market is fixated on the next cost update.
Australian peers Evolution Mining and Newmont have also been sensitive to swings in bullion and inflation in mining costs, leaving investors quick to punish any slip in production plans. For Northern Star, the near-term debate is whether the December quarter was a blip or a sign of a tougher operating environment.
But a worse-than-expected reset to cost guidance, or a slower-than-planned recovery at key sites, would test the recent rebound and could keep the stock pinned below year-end levels. Gold price volatility adds another layer, especially if U.S. data shifts expectations for interest rates.
