New York, Jan 7, 2026, 14:42 EST — Regular session
Spot silver fell 4.1% to $77.93 an ounce by 1:36 p.m. ET on Wednesday, as traders took profits after a sharp run and the dollar strengthened. HSBC raised its 2026 average silver price forecast to $68.25 an ounce but cautioned the market could stay volatile. “We’re viewing today’s pullback as general profit taking after that recent surge,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. 1
The price action matters now because silver has been moving in big clips even by precious-metals standards, with cash and futures markets whipping around on the same headlines. On Tuesday, it rose 5.4% to $80.68 and had touched an all-time high of $83.62 on Dec. 29, helped by safe-haven demand after upheaval in Venezuela, Reuters reported. Jim Wyckoff, a senior analyst at Kitco Metals, said metals traders “see more risk on the horizon” than stock and bond investors. 2
U.S. labour data is adding another layer. Job openings fell 303,000 in November to 7.146 million, below the 7.60 million economists had forecast, while hiring eased, the Labour Department said. Private payrolls rose 41,000 in December, short of a 47,000 estimate in a Reuters survey, according to ADP. Economists expect Friday’s government report to show nonfarm payrolls up 60,000 in December and the unemployment rate easing to 4.5%. 3
HSBC’s silver price forecast shift was large on paper. The bank lifted its 2026 forecast to $68.25 from $44.50 and raised its 2027 view to $57 from $40, citing a weaker U.S. dollar and mild supply-demand deficits. HSBC said industrial and jewellery demand is softening and mine and scrap supply is expanding, even as it expects institutional demand to stay firm, with coin and bar buying seen as a potential growth area. It described the market as volatile and “unsustainable.” 4
Morgan Stanley struck a slightly different note in a Jan. 5 report, arguing 2025 likely marked the peak of the silver deficit — when demand runs ahead of supply — but flagged upside risk from China’s export licence requirements that took effect at the start of this year. The bank also noted silver posted a 147% gain in 2025, driven by industrial demand and investor interest. 5
Geopolitics has been doing a lot of the heavy lifting this week. Silver jumped 5.2% on Monday as U.S. strikes in Venezuela pushed buyers toward havens, even as the move built on a rally already supported by rate-cut expectations. “The situation around Venezuela has clearly reactivated safe-haven demand,” said Alexander Zumpfe, a precious metals trader at Heraeus Metals Germany, who added that broader tensions or softer U.S. data could still fuel another push higher. 6
On the charts, traders are narrowing in on a few levels. MarketPulse, a research service published by ActionForex, highlighted $82 to $84 as a resistance zone — where selling often caps rallies — and $75 to $77 as near-term support, where buyers tend to step in. It said a break above resistance would put the record area back in play, while a drop toward $70–$72 would be the next test for bulls. 7
But the risks are obvious in a market this stretched. HSBC warned volatility could persist as supply eases, and Goldman Sachs sees thin London inventories driving sharp swings — including squeeze-led rallies that can reverse quickly when positions unwind. A squeeze is when tight supply or positioning forces buyers to cover at higher prices, lifting the market in a hurry. 8
Next up is the U.S. Employment Situation report for December, due on Friday, Jan. 9 at 8:30 a.m. ET, a release that can shift rate-cut pricing and the dollar in a single print. Those two signals have been steering silver almost as much as the headlines. 9
