New York, January 7, 2026, 17:12 EST — After-hours
- ASTS closed down about 12% after Scotiabank cut the stock to sector underperform and set a $45.60 target.
- The analyst flagged valuation and the work still needed to build a satellite network that can offer continuous service.
- Focus shifts to launch cadence updates and the company’s next quarterly report (date not yet confirmed by AST).
AST SpaceMobile shares fell 12.1% on Wednesday after Scotiabank cut its rating on the satellite-to-smartphone company, dragging the stock to $85.73 at the close. The shares traded between $95.25 and $84.10 in the session.
The move matters because the stock has been priced for a smooth build-out. ASTS has gained about 324% over the past 12 months and jumped about 34% in the last week, data cited by Investing.com showed, leaving it near a 52-week high before Wednesday’s drop. 1
Scotiabank analyst Andres Coello downgraded AST to sector underperform — a call that means he expects the shares to lag others in the group — and set a $45.60 price target. At Tuesday’s close near $97.60, he pegged AST’s market value at roughly $37 billion and called it “irrational levels” for a company that still has no retail customers, according to the note. Coello also pointed to the need to deploy about 50 satellites to deliver continuous service in select markets by late 2026 or early 2027. 2
AST is building a space-based cellular broadband network meant to connect “everyday smartphones” outside normal terrestrial coverage, the company says. For now, the trade is still about timelines, spending and proof that service can scale. 3
Those timelines have been in the headlines. AST’s next upgraded satellite, BlueBird 7, has arrived in Florida for launch integration, Via Satellite reported, after BlueBird 6 went up in late December. Chief Executive Abel Avellan called BlueBird 6 “a breakthrough moment,” and the company’s stated plan is to launch 45 to 60 satellites by end-2026, with launches planned every one or two months on average.
Valuation is the pinch point. The average analyst price target is $77, and at that level AST would still be valued at about $28 billion — more than 100 times estimated 2026 sales — FactSet data cited by Barron’s showed. Even with Wall Street modeling a steep ramp, the stock is still drawing an unusually high share of sell ratings for a company this size, the report noted. 4
But the stock cuts both ways. A clean run of launches, clearer evidence of paying users, or another big carrier win could pull buyers back quickly, while delays, higher costs or another round of financing could keep pressure on a name that has to spend heavily before it can sell a broad service.
Next up is the company’s next set of results and guidance on spending and launch pace; MarketBeat’s earnings calendar pins the next report as an estimate for March 2, after the market closes. With the downgrade now in the tape, traders will be watching whether the stock can hold the mid-$80s and stabilise before the next update.
