TS2 TECH • DAILY MODEL PORTFOLIO
Stocks to Buy Today
Here are five U.S.-listed stocks to watch on Thursday, August 6, before the opening bell. The model highlights recent earnings, strong free cash flow, and reasonable valuations. It lowers ratings if shares have already rallied after results, leaving little room for disappointment.
Selective • favor cash flow over crowded momentum
7,723.55 • -0.17%
26,363.44 • -0.83%
54,349.12 • +0.49%
4.63%
S&P +0.2% • Nasdaq -0.3%
Claims & productivity • 08:30 ET
Money is moving out of heavily favored tech stocks, helping the Dow outperform. Treasury yields remain elevated, oil prices hold near the mid-$70s, and Friday’s jobs report is the next key market event. Early trading discipline is proving more important than chasing headlines.
24% weight
CACI International
NYSE: CACI
95 / 100
CACI starts the new fiscal year reporting double-digit growth, improved margins, and a free cash flow target exceeding $900 million. The modest premarket gain contrasts with the raised guidance, offering a more attractive entry point than many recent earnings winners.
Shares closed Wednesday at $518.03 and rose to $523.80 in premarket trading. Analysts maintain a Buy consensus, with an average price target of $644 and targets ranging from $510 to $800, suggesting an implied upside of 22.9%.
Fiscal 2026 revenue reached $9.57 billion, up 10.9%. Adjusted EPS rose 12.7% to $29.83. EBITDA totaled $1.17 billion, with awards at $10.2 billion. Fourth-quarter free cash flow jumped 67.4% to $232.9 million.
For fiscal 2027, the company forecasts revenue between $10.65 billion and $10.85 billion, with adjusted EPS ranging from $32.96 to $33.86. Free cash flow is expected to be at least $900 million. The guidance midpoint values shares at 15.7 times earnings based on the premarket price.
Initial buy range: $510–$524. Consider adding between $488 and $500. Avoid purchasing above $535.
The earnings call at 08:00 ET will cover the timing of federal awards, integration of ARKA, and whether FY2027 cash conversion justifies the increased profit outlook.
Acquisition financing also raises interest expense and integration risk.
22% weight
Walt Disney
NYSE: DIS
92 / 100
Disney’s profits are now growing beyond just streaming. Its Entertainment and Experiences division saw operating income rise, free cash flow jumped, and management maintained a hefty share buyback plan. The stock continues to trade at about 15 times this year’s projected earnings.
Shares closed Wednesday at $101.76 and traded at $102.30 premarket. Analysts rate the stock a Buy, with an average price target of $126.93, ranging from $88 to $144, suggesting a potential upside of 24.1%.
Revenue rose 7% to $25.25 billion; adjusted EPS increased 28% to $2.06. Segment operating income climbed 21% to $5.56 billion, while free cash flow surged 63% to $3.07 billion.
Adjusted EPS is projected to grow by about 16% in fiscal 2026, with buybacks totaling at least $9 billion. For fiscal 2027, adjusted EPS is expected to maintain double-digit growth. Shares are trading at 15.0 times the FY2026 consensus EPS.
First tranche: $99–$103. Add at $94–$97. Avoid chasing above $106.
Key factors include domestic park demand, costs for sports rights, streaming profit margins, and timely execution of the share buyback before the fiscal year concludes.
demand and slower international park traffic could offset gains elsewhere.
20% weight
AerCap
NYSE: AER
91 / 100
AerCap trades at a low single-digit earnings multiple, supported by robust cash flow, asset-sale profits, and ongoing share buybacks. Its current outlook does not factor in potential gains from asset sales in the second half, leaving further upside even if the valuation multiple stays unchanged.
Shares closed Wednesday at $155.13 and edged up to $155.97 after hours. The consensus rating is Overweight, with an average price target of $179.30 and a range of $165 to $190, suggesting a potential upside of 15.0%.
Adjusted net income was $811 million, or $5.14 per share. Operating cash flow reached $1.5 billion, with asset sales totaling $1.4 billion. The company repurchased $691 million in shares during the quarter.
The 2026 adjusted earnings per share forecast stands at approximately $16.80, with an adjusted return on equity of 18% and an adjusted debt-to-equity ratio of 2.05. The after-hours share price implies a forward earnings multiple of 9.3 times.
Buy the first tranche between $152 and $157. Add more shares if the price drops to $145–$149. Avoid buying above $160.
Key factors include lease yields, profit margins on aircraft sales, the credit quality of airlines, and whether share buybacks persist when the stock trades below the model’s intrinsic value estimate.
reduce returns. Quarterly gains on sale are strong but uneven.
18% weight
Occidental Petroleum
NYSE: OXY
88 / 100
Occidental generated $3.0 billion in free cash flow from a strong oil quarter and reduced its debt by $1.9 billion. Production exceeded guidance, and capital spending was cut. While the stock remains conservatively valued, confidence is tempered by the current oil-price environment.
Shares closed Wednesday at $53.81 and traded at $54.74 in premarket activity. Analysts maintain an Overweight consensus, with an average price target of $65.26 and a range of $55 to $75, suggesting an implied upside of 19.2%.
Adjusted earnings per share came in at $2.40. Operating cash flow, excluding working capital, totaled $4.6 billion, while free cash flow before working capital reached $3.0 billion. Production averaged 1.433 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.
The 2026 capital spending outlook has been lowered to $5.5 billion to $5.9 billion. Third-quarter production is projected at 1.40 to 1.44 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. The quarterly dividend remains at $0.28. Shares trade at 9.9 times this year’s consensus earnings estimate.
Initial tranche at $53 to $55.50; consider adding at $49.50 to $51.50; avoid buying above $57
The 1:00 p.m. ET call will focus on realized oil prices, Permian production levels, and whether reduced capital spending can sustain output and support debt reduction.
today’s oil market. Consensus expects lower earnings next year if prices normalize.
16% weight
MercadoLibre
NASDAQ: MELI
86 / 100
MercadoLibre reported 50% revenue growth, with robust performance in both commerce and fintech segments. However, operating margin declined due to increased spending on shipping, credit, and product investment. The premarket drop offers a better entry point, though the position remains intentionally small.
Closed Wednesday at $1,922.57; premarket at $1,835.00. Consensus rating is Buy, with an average price target of $2,243.59 and a range of $1,750 to $2,800, implying a 22.3% upside.
Revenue rose 50% to $10.2bn. EPS came in at $9.19. Net income fell 11% to $466m, while operating income dropped 17% to $683m. The credit portfolio grew 75% to $16bn.
Gross merchandise volume rose 36% on a currency-neutral basis. Acquiring volume increased by 42%, while advertising revenue surged 73%. Shares traded at 32.6 times the consensus FY2027 EPS estimate ahead of results.
Initial tranche: $1,790–$1,850. Add on dips between $1,680 and $1,740. Avoid buying above $1,900.
Key topics include Brazil’s shipping sector, trends in credit losses, loan growth, and the extent to which revenue increases are driving operating margin expansion.
Credit losses, currency swings and sustained investment could delay margin recovery.
| Ticker | Price | Forecast | Fwd P/E | Avg target | Upside | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CACI | $523.80 PM | FY2027 guide midpoint $33.41 | 15.7× | $644.00 | +22.9% | $510–$524 |
| DIS | $102.30 PM | FY2026 consensus $6.83 | 15.0× | $126.93 | +24.1% | $99–$103 |
| AER | $155.97 AH | 2026 guide $16.80 | 9.3× | $179.30 | +15.0% | $152–$157 |
| OXY | $54.74 PM | FY2026 consensus $5.55 | 9.9× | $65.26 | +19.2% | $53–$55.50 |
| MELI | $1,835.00 PM | FY2027 pre-result $56.32 | 32.6× | $2,243.59 | +22.3% | $1,790–$1,850 |
Premarket and after-hours quotes serve as reference points and do not guarantee where stocks will open. Some analyst targets and earnings estimates were set before the latest reports and may be updated during Thursday’s revisions. Price targets represent estimates, not assured returns.
24%
22%
20%
18%
16%
Earnings and forecast updates
Cash flow and balance sheet overview
Valuation compared to projections
Entry quality remains after the move
Short-term event risk
Use limit orders and build each position in three tranches.
Review CACI following its 8:00 a.m. ET call, then assess the full list after the 8:30 a.m. ET data release. Avoid placing market orders if there are gaps greater than 5%. Keep MercadoLibre below its assigned weight until the first hour confirms support within the model range.
NASDAQ: AXON
WAIT FOR A DEEPER RESET
Revenue climbed 35%, with annual recurring revenue hitting $1.6 billion. However, the stock’s lofty valuation and slimmer gross margin offer limited tolerance for missteps.
NASDAQ: WDC
WAIT FOR PRICE DISCOVERY
Earnings are rebounding, but shares dropped sharply after hours following a significant earlier rally. Let forecasts and support levels stabilize before considering a purchase.
NASDAQ: PODD
GUIDANCE RESET IN PROGRESS
Quarterly growth was solid, but management cut its forecast, sending shares down roughly 20%. The model requires a more stable set of estimates.
6.4 / 10
CACI and Occidental remain under some pressure following their results, while MercadoLibre rebounds after a margin-driven drop. Disney and AerCap help reduce overall portfolio valuation risk, keeping risk levels moderately elevated.
Nasdaq futures are trailing the Dow, with the 10-year yield holding around 4.63%. Friday’s payrolls report could influence both bond yields and stocks. Oil price swings are creating further uncertainty for Occidental. In this environment, entry prices are more important than analyst price targets.