New York, Jan 7, 2026, 20:40 (EST) — Market closed
Adobe (ADBE.O) shares rose 0.6% to $338.10 on Wednesday after Adobe Analytics data showed U.S. online holiday spending hit $257.8 billion, above the company’s prior forecast of $253.4 billion. Buy-now-pay-later, an installment-payment option, accounted for $20 billion of spending and retail sites saw a 693.4% jump in traffic tied to AI shopping assistants and chatbots, Adobe said. “Competitive discounts and flexible payment options like Buy Now Pay Later also contributed to driving record spend,” said Vivek Pandya, lead analyst at Adobe Digital Insights. 1
The holiday dataset lands at an awkward moment for software stocks. Traders are trying to square still-solid consumer demand with a market that has re-priced rate cuts and grown picky about near-term growth.
For Adobe, the read-through is less about retail receipts and more about signal. Investors want to know whether new AI-driven workflows change behavior fast enough to matter for subscription growth, and whether the company can defend its creative tools as lower-end rivals get better.
Jefferies cut its rating on Adobe to Hold on Monday and lowered its price target to $400, pointing to competition for casual users from AI-enhanced alternatives. The broker said the business stayed “well-protected” among professionals but argued that a return to faster growth would likely need a “step-function” lift in creative AI mindshare. 2
In its December results, Adobe forecast fiscal 2026 revenue of $25.90 billion to $26.10 billion and non-GAAP profit of $23.30 to $23.50 per share, a measure that strips out some items such as stock-based compensation. For the first quarter, it guided to $6.25 billion to $6.30 billion in revenue and non-GAAP EPS of $5.85 to $5.90, while targeting more than 10% growth in ending ARR, or annual recurring revenue. 3
Adobe ended the day about 28% below its 52-week high of $465.70, and technicians have been watching whether it can reclaim the $360 area, near a longer-term moving average. The stock hit a three-year low of $311.58 in November, putting the low-$300s back on the chart if sentiment turns again. 4
But the holiday data is a snapshot of U.S. e-commerce, not Adobe’s billing. The bigger risk case is that AI-driven tools widen the pool of “good enough” creative options and force tougher price and packaging decisions, just as enterprise marketing budgets get more cautious.
Focus shifts to Thursday’s U.S. productivity data and Friday’s employment report, two releases that can move Treasury yields and tech multiples. Adobe’s next scheduled catalyst is its fiscal first-quarter earnings call on March 12 at 2 p.m. Pacific. 5
