Nokia shares climb after €2.8 billion AI order book marks reset test

Nokia shares climb after €2.8 billion AI order book marks reset test

HELSINKI, August 11, 2026, 13:09 EDT

  • Nokia ADRs gained 3.4%, reaching $9.44 following four consecutive sessions of losses.
  • The share price was still 45.9% under its 52-week peak from June.
  • AI and cloud orders totaled €2.8 billion in the second quarter, outpacing quarterly sales to those clients by over six times.

Nokia Oyj shares rose on Tuesday, with investors considering a substantial three-month pullback alongside an expanding AI order backlog for the company. At 12:50 p.m. in New York, the ADR was trading at $9.44, showing a 3.4% gain as the regular session continued.

Stock chart for NYSE:NOK

The rebound came after four straight sessions in the red. Monday’s 2.5% decline pushed Nokia down to $9.13, marking a drop of nearly 48% from its high in June. Tuesday’s gains recovered only a fraction of those losses.

Market measureAugust 11 readingInvestor context
ADR price$9.44Rose 3.4% during trading
Session range$9.31-$9.52Started the session at $9.37
52-week high$17.45Price now 45.9% below peak
Volume36.66 millionRepresents 42% of typical daily 87.47 million
Market value$55.11 billionBased on indicated ADR price

The market table utilizes Google Finance intraday data. The discount from the peak is based on the $9.44 price compared to the $17.45 high. Trading was ongoing and volume continued to rise as the session was not yet over.

The more pressing issue is how quickly Nokia can convert its orders into profit. AI and cloud order intake for the second quarter totaled €2.8 billion, while sales to these clients amounted to €446 million, making orders roughly 6.3 times the quarterly sales figure.

The company anticipates that approximately 50% of those orders will turn into revenue over the next 12 months, suggesting around €1.4 billion in conversion, excluding any potential cancellations or timing adjustments. “Demand remains strong, while supply continues to be the main industry constraint,” Chief Executive Justin Hotard said. Nokia Q2 report

Comparable group measureQ2 2026Q2 2025Change
Net sales€4.815 billion€4.448 billion8% higher reported
Operating profit€434 million€367 millionup 18%
Operating margin9.0%8.3%increase of 70 basis points
Diluted EPS€0.07€0.04rising 75%

The quarter provided the order thesis with operational backing. Comparable profit grew at a quicker rate than sales, while earnings per share climbed by 75%. These results are detailed in Nokia’s half-year report.

Q2 2026 segment measureNetwork InfrastructureMobile Infrastructure
Net sales€2.037 billion€2.680 billion
Reported sales growth12%6%
Operating profit€166 million€310 million
Operating margin8.1%11.6%
Prior-year margin6.4%12.2%

Network Infrastructure drove growth, with its margin rising by 1.7 percentage points. In contrast, Mobile Infrastructure saw its margin decrease by 0.6 points. Optical Networks expanded 20% in constant currency terms, and IP Networks advanced 16%.

The composition is more significant than the overall sales increase. Quicker expansion in optical and IP segments can boost Nokia’s presence in data-center investments. This shift also lessens dependence on the more sluggish carrier radio expenditure.

Analysts keep a positive view. According to Google Finance, all five analysts who issued ratings in the past three months have a buy recommendation, with no hold or sell ratings. The mean price target stands at $17.89, representing an 89.6% premium to the most recent trading price.

AnalystFirmRecommendationTargetLatest action
Jim KelleherArgus ResearchBuy$15Reaffirmed July 23
Tim SavageauxNorthland SecuritiesBuy$20Reaffirmed July 24
Christian SchwabCraig-HallumBuy$15Reaffirmed July 24
Sandeep DeshpandeJ.P. MorganBuy$21Unchanged June 12

The target spread remains broad, and it was already in place before the most recent four-session decline. Deshpande identified the €2.8 billion AI and cloud order number as “the key number” in Nokia’s report, and noted the absence of any upgrade to operational guidance. Investing.com

Nokia maintains its forecast for comparable operating profit this year at €2.1 billion to €2.6 billion. The €100 million adjustment from its previous range is technical and relates to discontinued operations. The company’s management anticipates third-quarter sales to increase by 3% to 7% sequentially, with profit expected to remain broadly stable prior to a projected stronger fourth quarter.

Risks are still tangible. Shortages of memory and other parts could postpone deliveries or lead to higher expenses. Nokia is additionally set to incur €800 million in restructuring charges in 2026, and the timeline from orders to revenue could shift.

The upcoming metric is conversion. Projected AI and cloud income of around €1.4 billion within 12 months would be over triple the €446 million recorded in the most recent quarter. Falling short could put the substantial premium to analyst targets at risk.

TS2 TECH • EXTENDED COVERAGE

Further analysis

What prompted Nokia shares to recover on August 11?
Nokia ADRs gained 3.4% to reach $9.44 as of 12:50 p.m. EDT, snapping a four-session losing streak. The increase recouped some, but not all, of the recent drop. Shares remained 45.9% under the June peak of $17.45.
What is the primary AI-related growth metric for Nokia shareholders?
AI and cloud orders totaled €2.8 billion in the second quarter. Sales to these clients amounted to €446 million, with order volume approximately 6.3 times the quarterly revenue. Nokia anticipates that about half, or €1.4 billion, will turn into revenue over the next 12 months. The timing, however, is still unclear.
Has Nokia increased its profit forecast for 2026?
There is no change to operational results. The comparable operating profit forecast has shifted to €2.1 billion-€2.6 billion, previously €2.0 billion-€2.5 billion, following the reclassification of two businesses as discontinued operations. Nokia anticipates third-quarter sales to increase by 3%-7% sequentially, with comparable operating profit remaining mostly unchanged, ahead of an expected stronger performance in the fourth quarter.
What might disrupt Nokia's AI order conversion?
Shortages of components represent the most immediate risk. Limited memory supply may postpone deliveries and increase expenses. Nokia is also anticipating €800 million in restructuring costs for 2026. Should order conversions lag behind expectations, the significant difference between the share price and analysts' targets might shrink for unfavorable reasons.
Khadija Saeed

Khadija Saeed is a financial markets reporter at TS2.tech, specializing in stocks, technology and emerging industries. She studied economics and finance at the London School of Economics and previously worked in market research before moving into financial journalism. Her coverage focuses on the companies, innovations and economic trends influencing global investors. Follow Khadija Saeed on Google News.

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