Sydney, Jan 8, 2026, 17:46 AEDT — Market closed
ASX Ltd (ASX:ASX) shares rose 2% to A$52.14 on Thursday after Goldman Sachs analyst Julian Braganza upgraded the Australian exchange operator to neutral from sell, StreetInsider reported. The stock traded between A$51.41 and A$52.33, while the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 ended up 0.29%. 1
The upgrade matters because ASX’s earnings move with market activity. More trades and bigger capital raisings lift fees across its trading, clearing and settlement businesses, and those revenue lines can turn fast.
A fresh monthly activity report has given investors another datapoint on that pipeline, at a time when the company is still rebuilding trust with regulators. Some money is also looking for a reason to step back into exchange operators after a choppy start to the year.
In its December activity report, ASX said the average daily number of cash-market trades jumped 50% from a year earlier and the average daily value traded on-market — through the exchange’s order book — rose 23% to A$6.501 billion. New capital quoted totalled A$9.6 billion in December and net new capital was A$8.0 billion, both above the year-ago period, the filing showed. CHESS holdings — the system that records shareholdings and settles Australian share trades — rose 12% to A$3.47 trillion, and Austraclear holdings rose 8% to A$3.42 trillion.
Goldman set a A$57 target price and said ASX’s first-half results looked “relatively de-risked”, with the revenue backdrop and spending profile “relatively well understood,” Investing.com reported. It still flagged risks around FY2027 (the year ending June 2027) expenses and “remnant regulatory risks” tied to earlier CHESS replacement disclosures. 2
Regulatory pressure remains the overhang. ASIC said the group has agreed to reforms that include stronger governance for the clearing and settlement boards and an extra A$150 million capital charge — an additional capital buffer — until remediation is complete.
ASX said it will build the additional A$150 million capital buffer by June 30, 2027 and narrowed its dividend payout range to 75%-85% of underlying net profit after tax. Chief executive Helen Lofthouse said “there is no doubt this is a tough report,” and the company said it will give FY27 expense-growth guidance at a June 2026 investor forum. ASX said it will report its half-year results on Feb. 12.
But exchange stocks can sag quickly when volatility drops and traders step back, leaving fee income exposed. Any fresh delays or cost blowouts in the CHESS replacement and broader systems rebuild could sharpen that risk.
Global markets will take cues on Friday from the U.S. jobs report, a likely driver of risk appetite and trading volumes into next week. 3
