London, Jan 9, 2026, 10:46 GMT — Regular session
Shell Plc shares (SHEL.L) rose on Friday, clawing back some of Thursday’s drop as oil prices held firm and investors sifted through the company’s fourth-quarter signals. The stock was up about 2.2% at 2,619.62 pence by 10:46 GMT, near the top of its day range. It has traded between 2,589.50 and 2,620.50 pence so far and remains below its 52-week high of 2,937.50. 1
The bounce comes a day after Shell fell 3.5% in London after the company pointed to a fourth-quarter loss in its chemicals and products business, prompting questions over whether it will keep the pace of its share buyback programme. Rival BP (BP.L) slipped 0.6% on Thursday. 2
That matters because Shell’s repurchases have been a key leg of its shareholder returns at a time when earnings can swing with trading, refining and chemicals margins. RBC’s Biraj Borkhataria wrote that the issue was whether the board would “hold the line” on a $3.5 billion quarterly buyback, while HSBC’s Kim Fustier said he was less confident Shell can stick with that pace. UBS and Citi also flagged a risk the buyback drops to $3 billion. 3
Shell’s update note showed why the market flinched. The company said its Chemicals & Products segment adjusted earnings were expected to be below break-even in the fourth quarter, with trading and optimisation expected to be “significantly lower” than the third quarter; it also flagged a “significant loss” in the chemicals sub-segment tied to a non-cash deferred tax adjustment in a joint venture. Shell narrowed its outlook for liquefied natural gas (LNG) liquefaction volumes to 7.5–7.9 million tonnes, and guided upstream production at 1.84–1.94 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), a standard way to combine oil and gas output. 4
Oil prices offered a partial offset on Friday, keeping the sector bid. Brent futures were up 0.3% at $62.17 a barrel by 10:05 GMT, with the market weighing potential disruption in Iran against expectations of increased supply from Venezuela; “Iran protests seem to be gathering momentum,” Saxo Bank’s Ole Hansen said. Still, rising global inventories and the prospect of more supply could cap gains, according to Haitong Futures. 5
European energy stocks led a broader advance on Friday, rising 1.6% and helping push the STOXX 600 to an all-time high, as traders stayed risk-on despite fresh geopolitical tensions tied to U.S. actions in Venezuela. “A healthy dose of scepticism was still warranted,” Morningstar chief equity strategist Michael Field said, in comments on deal-driven moves elsewhere in the market. 6
But the rebound in Shell may not settle the argument. If trading stays weak and chemicals margins fail to lift, pressure builds for management to prioritise cash over buybacks, and any trim would likely hit sentiment fast. A pullback in crude would also take away a tailwind just as investors try to pin down what “significantly lower” trading means in pounds and pence.
Traders now look ahead to Shell’s Feb. 5 announcement date for its fourth-quarter dividend timetable — the next clear moment for buyback guidance and any clean-up on the quarter’s tax and trading noise. 7
