London, January 9, 2026, 12:11 GMT — Regular session
- Rio Tinto shares slid in London after it confirmed early-stage talks with Glencore.
- Investors are parsing the deal terms, the coal exposure and any potential regulatory hurdles.
- Dates to watch next: Rio’s Jan. 21 operations update, then a Feb. 5 UK takeover deadline.
Rio Tinto (RIO.L) shares slid on Friday after the miner confirmed preliminary discussions with Glencore over a possible combination. Rio was down 2.2% in London by 1044 GMT, while Glencore jumped 10%, with markets also watching a U.S. jobs report later in the day. (Reuters)
The talks revive the chances of a mining mega-deal that would create a group valued at nearly $207 billion and, analysts say, would leapfrog BHP in market value. Rio’s shares slid as investors worried it could overpay for Glencore, a $65 billion miner and trader, in a tie-up that could reshape exposure to copper and other “strategic” metals. “The market (rightly or wrongly) views iron ore as a commodity facing price decline,” Berenberg analyst Richard Hatch said, arguing Rio needs more copper.
Rio said it and Glencore have held preliminary talks over a possible combination of some or all of their businesses, including the prospect of an all-share merger. It said the working assumption for now is that Rio would acquire Glencore through a court-approved “scheme of arrangement”, a common UK takeover structure, while stressing there was no certainty any offer would be made. Under the UK Takeover Code, Rio said it has until 5 p.m. London time on Feb. 5 to announce a firm offer or walk away. (Rio Tinto)
Some Rio shareholders flagged concerns about a deal that could pull coal back into the mix and put management discipline under pressure. “Investors are not happy with this,” said Hugh Dive, chief investment officer at Atlas Funds Management, warning big mining mergers can end up “very dilutive over time.” Wilson Asset Management portfolio manager John Ayoub said “no premium can be paid whatsoever,” and said coal would likely need to be divested to get parts of Rio’s shareholder base onside. (Reuters)
Traders are trying to fill in what’s still blank — the exchange ratio, the fate of Glencore’s coal and trading arms, and whether regulators — in Europe, Australia and China — start circling right away. Early signals may come sideways: who’s talking to whom, and how fast both sides shift from “preliminary” to numbers.
Rio also laid out its key 2026 dates in a Thursday exchange announcement, including its 2025 full-year results on Feb. 19. It flagged the final dividend timetable as well, with an ex-dividend date of March 5 for ordinary shares and a payment date of April 16. (Investegate)
The next catalyst is closer. Rio’s financial calendar has a fourth-quarter operations review due on Jan. 21, ahead of the Feb. 19 annual results. Investors will be watching for updates on volumes and costs — and any hint that deal chatter is distracting from the day job. (Rio Tinto)
Still, it could just as easily go the other way. The talks might fizzle. Shareholders could push back hard on price or coal, and regulators could drag things out, especially if competition concerns mount in key metals. And if the market keeps marking Rio down, any all-share offer has a higher hurdle to clear.
From here it’s mostly about the calendar: whether either company says anything else, and whether Rio takes a firm step ahead of the 5 p.m. London deadline on Feb. 5. First up is Rio’s Jan. 21 operations update, the next date traders have circled.
