Nvidia stock: What traders watch Monday after China H200 payment terms tighten

Nvidia stock: What traders watch Monday after China H200 payment terms tighten

NEW YORK, Jan 10, 2026, 09:35 EST — Market closed

  • Nvidia shares slipped 0.1% to close Friday at $184.86.
  • Attention centers on stricter conditions for H200 chip sales to China and new auto partnerships revealed at CES.
  • Upcoming highlights: TSMC’s outlook on Jan. 15 and Nvidia’s earnings report on Feb. 25.

Nvidia shares dipped Friday, finishing at $184.86 as investors mulled over new developments around China demand and CES-related partnerships heading into the weekend.

Nvidia is demanding full upfront payment from Chinese buyers of its H200 AI chips, Reuters reports, as it navigates uncertainty around Beijing’s approval process for shipments.

This is crucial as the company attempts to revive a delicate revenue stream amid changing regulations, while buyers rush to secure supply. According to the report, the terms forbid cancellations, refunds, or configuration tweaks once an order is made. Meanwhile, Chinese regulators continue to evaluate requirements linked to domestic chip acquisitions.

CEO Jensen Huang described demand for the H200 as “quite high,” indicating that proof of approval should appear in upcoming purchase orders. Reuters noted that a recent policy change in Washington now permits H200 sales, with a 25% fee directed to the U.S. government. Meanwhile, Nvidia has taken steps to shield itself after previous disruptions linked to China.

This week in Las Vegas, Nvidia unveiled a next-gen platform set to power a robotaxi alliance involving Lucid, Nuro, and Uber, Reuters reported. Mercedes-Benz plans to introduce a new advanced driver-assistance system in the U.S. later this year, built on Nvidia’s chips. Amazon Web Services exec Ozgur Tohumcu described AI as a “big accelerant” for speeding up development and validation.

Chip stocks led a broader market rally as the S&P 500 gained 0.65% on Friday. The Philadelphia SE Semiconductor Index surged 2.7% to hit a record high. Nvidia, however, fell short of some peers, even while Broadcom climbed 3.8% and Intel jumped nearly 11%, according to a separate Reuters report.

Macro data failed to shake the risk-on sentiment. U.S. payrolls increased by 50,000 in December, while the unemployment rate edged down to 4.4%, reinforcing bets that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged at its Jan. 27-28 meeting, Reuters reported. Fitch’s Olu Sonola noted the unemployment rate “should douse the Fed’s recent urgency,” though he added that the weak job growth “can’t be brushed aside.”

TSMC, Nvidia’s crucial contract manufacturer, posted a 20.45% jump in fourth-quarter revenue. The company plans to share its outlook, including guidance and capital spending, during its Jan. 15 earnings call.

Nvidia’s next key date is Feb. 25, when it will unveil its fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results.

Risks cut both ways. Any hold-up in Chinese approvals, stricter “buy local” rules, or a sudden policy shift could throw off order timing and mix. The company is also juggling supply as customers queue for high-end GPUs, while domestic options remain in development.

On Monday, traders will be looking for clues that orders from China are picking up, and whether shares can push past Friday’s highs near $187 or dip back to this week’s lows around $184. After that, the next key events are TSMC’s January 15 outlook and Nvidia’s earnings report on February 25.

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