New York, Jan 10, 2026, 17:38 EST — The market has closed.
- Schwab shares dropped Friday, marking their fourth consecutive decline, even as the broader market climbed.
- Barclays raised its price target on Schwab, citing stronger trading volumes and increased volatility as key drivers.
- Next week’s inflation figures and Schwab’s earnings report and business update for late January are on investors’ radar.
The Charles Schwab Corporation’s shares slipped 1.15% to $100.17 on Friday, marking a fourth straight day of losses despite gains in the broader market. The stock closed roughly 4% shy of its recent 52-week high, with trading volume falling below its 50-day average. 1
Timing is crucial. As Wall Street gears up for the first major wave of fourth-quarter earnings, rate forecasts are shifting with every new data release.
At Schwab, the interest rate environment touches nearly every part of its business. A significant portion of its profits stems from net interest income — the gap between earnings on client cash and securities and the costs of funding. Meanwhile, market volatility can push trading revenue up or down.
Barclays lifted its price target on Schwab to $120 from $111, maintaining an “Overweight” rating, TheFly reported. The firm noted that total volumes in equities, options, and futures “rose nicely” compared to the previous quarter. Volatility — a gauge of price swings — also increased from the prior period. 2
Friday’s jobs report shook up rate expectations. The U.S. economy added 50,000 jobs in December, while the unemployment rate dipped to 4.4%, according to Schwab’s Joe Mazzola. He noted that odds for a January rate cut “dropped sharply.” Collin Martin, Schwab Center for Financial Research’s head of fixed income research and strategy, said the data “shouldn’t change the Fed’s near-term plans.” Schwab continues to forecast steady rates through the next few meetings. 3
Next week’s lineup promises sharp moves in financial stocks: Tuesday brings consumer price index data, followed by producer price index figures on Wednesday, along with retail sales and a host of other reports. Nathan Peterson at Schwab noted that the fourth-quarter earnings season “will unofficially kick off with the big banks” on Tuesday, warning that volatility could spike as inflation numbers and earnings collide. 4
Schwab’s catalyst is just around the corner. The firm plans to report fourth-quarter 2025 earnings and December’s monthly activity during the week of Jan. 19, aiming for a Jan. 21 release. Its Winter Business Update is also scheduled for that day. 5
Investors will closely watch the December activity report for changes in client cash patterns, especially if cash keeps flowing into money-market funds or other yield products amid lingering high rates. Net new assets, trading volumes, and funding costs are also expected to influence market sentiment around the quarter.
Next week’s bank earnings could shake up expectations around trading revenue and net interest margins. These trends usually ripple through brokers and asset managers alike, not just Schwab.
But the situation is tricky. Higher inflation might send yields soaring, rattling risk assets. On the flip side, softer data could reignite expectations for rate cuts, squeezing spread income at companies dependent on interest margins. A sharp decline in market activity would also challenge the “volumes” rationale used to justify recent target increases.
Schwab is hovering just under $100 as markets open Monday, with investors eyeing if it can maintain that level and push back toward last week’s peak. Key dates to watch: Jan. 13 brings the CPI report, followed by Schwab’s earnings and Winter Business Update on Jan. 21.
