Amsterdam, Jan 11, 2026, 16:46 CET — Markets have closed.
- ASML’s shares on the U.S. market ended the day 6.7% higher, closing at $1,273.88.
- Bernstein upgraded ASML to Outperform and bumped its price target up to €1,300, pointing to a stronger memory spending cycle.
- Investors are zeroing in on ASML’s January 28 release for net bookings and an expanded 2026 forecast.
ASML Holding’s U.S.-listed shares jumped 6.7% to close at $1,273.88 in the latest session. The boost came on renewed analyst enthusiasm, linking the Dutch chip-equipment giant’s 2026 outlook to AI-driven demand and a recovery in memory spending. 1
This matters because ASML controls a critical bottleneck in advanced chip manufacturing. If major chipmakers continue ramping up AI-related capacity, ASML’s lithography equipment could score a fresh wave of orders—even as investors argue over whether 2026 will bring a “pause” or more growth. The company has promised to share more on its 2026 outlook come January. 2
Bernstein upgraded ASML to Outperform in a note spotlighted in a Sunday analyst roundup, dubbing it a top European semiconductor pick for 2026. The firm boosted its price target sharply, from €800 to €1,300. Analyst David Dai pointed to an emerging DRAM upcycle and rising “lithography intensity” as memory makers shift to more advanced nodes, saying ASML stands to gain disproportionately. 1
Dai projected that the top three DRAM manufacturers might boost greenfield capacity by up to 250,000 wafers monthly in 2026, speeding up the shift to the “1c node.” He noted the lithography content per wafer will surpass that of previous generations. 1
He also noted that a potential technology shift in DRAM design, which might have cut demand for extreme ultraviolet (EUV) tools, now seems postponed. In his view, this delay bolsters the case for increased EUV use well into the decade. 1
ASML, whose equipment is favored by leading chipmakers, highlighted AI as a major growth driver but flagged a potential slowdown in China-related sales following a strong run. CEO Christophe Fouquet said in the latest quarterly update that demand from Chinese customers—and thus sales in China for 2026—are expected to “decline significantly” compared to 2024 and 2025, even as AI-driven growth expands in advanced logic and DRAM segments. 2
The next key event: ASML will release its Q4 and full-year 2025 financial results on Wednesday, Jan. 28. Investors are looking for updates on 2026 sales, margins, and capacity plans. 3
Traders will focus on net bookings, ASML’s top demand gauge, along with any news on EUV system shipments and service revenue growth. They’ll also watch for signs that key customers might be accelerating deliveries. Updates on High-NA EUV, the next-gen tech for cutting-edge chips, will be under close scrutiny. 2
That said, the situation is double-edged. Should demand from China drop off quicker than anticipated, or if key clients hold back on capex amid macro uncertainty, export restrictions, or slow new fab startups, ASML’s order flow could become uneven—even if AI-driven demand stays robust. 2
Looking ahead to the week, all eyes remain on positioning for Jan. 28. The key question: will ASML’s booking trends back Bernstein’s “big years for EUV” story? Also in focus is whether management’s 2026 outlook will settle the debate on how much AI-driven spending can make up for weaker China demand. 1
