Shanghai, Jan 12, 2026, 00:16 CST — Premarket
- Agricultural Bank of China’s Class A shares ended at 7.41 yuan, slipping 0.4%
- China’s December credit data, a crucial indicator of loan demand, is set for release on Jan. 14
- The loan prime rate reset is set for Jan. 19, putting banks’ margins under scrutiny
Agricultural Bank of China Ltd’s Class A shares (601288) closed Friday down 0.4% at 7.41 yuan and are set for Monday trading, holding steady near their recent peaks. 1
China’s December credit data, due midweek, is expected to drive the next move. New Yuan Loans will be reported on Jan. 14, with forecasts around 450 billion yuan, up from 390 billion yuan in November, per Investing.com’s calendar. 2
Traders are also eyeing “total social financing” (TSF), which combines bank loans with other funding sources like bonds and off-balance-sheet items. The latest TSF figure is set to be released on Jan. 14, with forecasts at 2.0 trillion yuan, down from 2.49 trillion yuan the previous month, according to the same calendar. 3
For Agricultural Bank of China and its peers, credit data is crucial—it sets the tone for volume growth and asset quality early in the year, just as lending usually picks up. A weak reading tends to stoke concerns over lackluster demand, while a stronger one prompts scrutiny of pricing discipline and the ultimate destinations of the loans.
Policy remains front and center. China’s five-year loan prime rate (LPR), which usually influences mortgage rates, is due for an update on Jan. 19. The current rate stands at 3.50%, according to Investing.com data. 4
Foreign trade is set to deliver another key macro indicator. December’s trade data, due this week, will draw investor scrutiny, especially around the implications of a large surplus for the currency and capital flows. The size of the surplus could also ramp up pressure on policymakers to boost domestic demand. 5
Agricultural Bank of China typically moves in the wake of the other “big four” state lenders — ICBC, China Construction Bank, and Bank of China — where sector trends tend to drown out individual company details, particularly when rates and credit dominate the tape.
There’s a risk scenario here. Should credit growth fall short of forecasts or return with tighter spreads, investors will likely see that as a sign of mounting margin pressure. And if lending stress emerges in property-related exposures, the sector could repricing sharply and fast.
Shanghai’s market will reopen later Monday following the weekend pause, trading in two sessions from late morning until mid-afternoon local time. 6
Wednesday brings the first key event: the PBOC’s credit figures, including new loans and TSF data for Jan. 14. Then watch for the loan prime rate reset on Jan. 19. Both dates tend to jolt bank stocks, especially when liquidity and growth forecasts are in play.
