New York, January 11, 2026, 15:45 EST — The market has closed.
AppLovin Corp shares closed Friday up roughly 5% at $647.72, buoyed by a bullish note from Benchmark analyst Mike Hickey. He reaffirmed his buy rating and $775 price target, naming AppLovin his 2026 EDM Top Idea. Hickey highlighted a “clear path to sustained revenue growth and strong earnings leverage into 2026.” 1
Timing is key. AppLovin, known for its volatility, often swings with shifts in risk appetite. Investors have been swift to sell off pricey growth stocks whenever rates rise.
U.S. markets were closed Sunday, so Monday’s session will show if Friday’s gains can stick or if the macroeconomic data will weigh on sentiment.
Benchmark’s note highlighted margins and scale, citing what it described as low-80% adjusted EBITDA margins — a profit measure excluding certain costs to reveal core earnings strength. The report also pointed to growing use of AppLovin’s self-serve Axon Ads Manager and better ROAS, or return on ad spend, in prospecting campaigns.
AppLovin finished 2025 with a 108% gain, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data cited by The Motley Fool. The company shifted focus toward advertising, stepping back from its slower-growth gaming segment. It sold its mobile gaming business to Tripledot Studios for $400 million in cash plus a 20% stake in Tripledot, the report noted. The same analysis values the stock at roughly 75 times earnings, leaving little margin for error.
That shift pushes AppLovin into more challenging waters. By moving deeper into web and e-commerce advertising, it faces off directly with major ad platforms and ad-tech firms that offer marketers measurement and performance tools.
First up on the macro calendar: the Labor Department will drop December’s consumer price index on Jan. 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET. Then, the Federal Reserve meets Jan. 27-28. Both dates have the potential to shake up rate expectations and, in turn, sway sentiment toward high-multiple growth stocks. 2
Focus on company-specific news turns to February. AppLovin has scheduled its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings call for Feb. 11 at 2:00 p.m. PT. Investors will be looking closely for any updates on Axon Ads Manager adoption and its traction beyond mobile gaming. 3
AppLovin’s shares fluctuated from $612.65 to $649.51 on Friday, with roughly 3.6 million shares traded, per market data. As Tuesday’s CPI report approaches, options activity and positioning may intensify price swings both ways.
Still, the stock faces headline risk beyond just rates and valuation. Bloomberg News reported in October that AppLovin is under SEC investigation for its data-collection practices. Any fresh updates on this could quickly sour investor sentiment.
The next major events to watch are Tuesday’s CPI release and, down the line, AppLovin’s Feb. 11 earnings — a key test of whether margins can keep up with price growth.
