Sydney, January 12, 2026, 11:11 AEDT — Regular session
- Fortescue (FMG) slips roughly 1.6% in late morning trading
- Iron ore cues and talks of a miner agreement remain center stage as the week kicks off
- Next catalyst: Fortescue’s production report for the December quarter drops Jan. 22
Fortescue Ltd (ASX:FMG) slipped 1.6%, hitting A$22.35 by 11:11 a.m. AEDT on Monday, down from Friday’s A$22.71 close. The stock swung between A$22.29 and A$22.80 today, inside its 52-week range of A$13.18 to A$23.38. Analysts followed by Investing.com put the 12-month target at about A$19.33, with six recommending sell and just one buy. 1
The broader S&P/ASX 200 edged up roughly 0.6% to 8,769.5, though miners showed a split performance; BHP Group slipped 2.7%. Fortescue, whose earnings lean heavily on iron ore, typically sees bigger swings than the overall market. 2
Iron ore is drawing attention again as traders weigh mixed signals from China on demand and policy talks. Reuters reported February iron ore on the Singapore market climbed 0.37% to $108.25 a tonne Friday, despite Dalian futures retreating amid growing port inventories. The report also noted China’s recent inflation figures are fueling hopes for further stimulus to boost demand. 3
Talk of deals hasn’t eased tensions. Rio Tinto’s early-stage talks to acquire Glencore might trigger further consolidation and push BHP to make a move, Reuters reported. “The mining space is consolidating,” said Mark Kelly, CEO at MKI Global. Richard Hatch from Berenberg labeled BHP the “most likely interloper.” Rio has until Feb. 5 to lodge a formal bid, though that deadline might be pushed back, the report added.
Fortescue faces a compressed timeline. The miner plans to publish its December-quarter production figures on Jan. 22, with half-year results set for Feb. 25, per the company’s investor calendar. 4
The quarterly update serves as a key indicator for shipments, output, and cash cost — essentially, the expense to mine and transport a tonne of ore. Changes to guidance typically trigger bigger stock moves than daily fluctuations in the ore price.
Shares are hovering near the high of their 12-month range, prompting traders to snap up profits whenever sentiment sours. As a result, the stock remains volatile, reacting sharply to macroeconomic news and every update on iron ore prices.
But the impact can swing both ways. Rising iron ore prices, a strong production report, or a weaker Australian dollar could quickly lure buyers in. On the flip side, a shipment shortfall or a disappointing cost figure could quickly alter expectations.
Investors are keeping an eye on whether the Rio-Glencore negotiations bring new players into the mix or stall once more. Regardless, the talks have shoved “what’s next” for major miners back onto the trading floor’s radar.
Fortescue’s next tough checkpoint arrives Jan. 22, with its quarterly production report. Traders will scrutinize shipments versus forecasts and hunt for clues on costs.
