Sydney, Jan 12, 2026, 17:14 AEDT — Market closed.
- BHP shares dropped 2.5% on the ASX, finishing at A$46.51
- Talk of a merger between Rio Tinto and Glencore has shifted focus back to what BHP might do next in copper
- Upcoming catalysts to watch are BHP’s operational review on Jan. 20 and the Feb. 5 deadline in the Rio-Glencore deal.
BHP Group Ltd shares ended Monday down 2.54% at A$46.51, slipping for most of the session as investors digested renewed chatter of major deals stirring the mining sector.
The decline is significant since BHP remains the benchmark for Australia’s mining sector. The fresh talk of consolidation arrives as investors scramble to gauge “what’s next” following a year marked by fits-and-starts in dealmaking.
Copper is back in the spotlight. Used in wiring and power grids, it’s the scarce metal that executives and bankers say big miners are eager to control more of.
A Reuters analysis published overnight suggested Rio Tinto’s talks with Glencore could trigger wider consolidation and put BHP under pressure to act. “This is yet another example that the mining space is consolidating,” said Mark Kelly, CEO of advisory firm MKI Global. Richard Hatch, an analyst at Berenberg, named BHP the “most likely interloper” in any potential deal, while RBC’s Kaan Peker countered that BHP’s copper pipeline is strong enough that it “doesn’t need to do anything.” 1
Reuters reported that BHP’s market capitalization stands at about $161 billion, while a merged Rio-Glencore entity could be valued near $207 billion. Rio has until Feb. 5 to submit a formal bid under takeover regulations. A banking insider noted regulators will probably require asset sales to ease competition worries. BHP declined to comment on the takeover or CEO succession, despite reports that a new CEO appointment is in the works.
On Monday, BHP filed an ASX announcement titled “Notification regarding unquoted securities.” These filings generally concern equity awards or securities that don’t trade publicly and aren’t considered operational updates. 2
Risk appetite took a hit. On Monday, global markets wobbled amid rising tensions between U.S. President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The dollar slipped, while gold surged to record levels, Reuters reported. 3
On Monday, BHP’s shares fluctuated from A$46.15 to A$46.90, starting the session at A$46.48, per data from investing.com. 4
The move seemed more like broad positioning than a reaction to one company alone. Because of its scale, BHP often serves as the fastest gauge of “risk on/risk off” sentiment in Australian resources whenever global news breaks.
There is a downside risk, though. Should Rio’s negotiations with Glencore hit another dead end — or if regulators push for steep asset divestments — those deal premiums could vanish quickly. On top of that, a slump in the commodity market would put BHP on the spot just as investors demand clarity on its next growth move.
In the next session, traders will tune in for updates on BHP’s CEO succession, watching closely to see if talks about deals translate into actual steps from rivals, advisers, or shareholders.
