New York, Jan 12, 2026, 09:37 (EST) — Regular session
Apple (AAPL.O) shares rose 0.1% to $259.37 in early trade on Monday after Counterpoint Research data showed the iPhone maker led global smartphone shipments in 2025, even as U.S. stocks opened lower. Apple held a 20% share, ahead of Samsung’s 19% and Xiaomi’s 13%, with Counterpoint analyst Varun Mishra pointing to “solid demand in emerging and mid-sized markets” and strong iPhone 17 sales. Counterpoint research director Tarun Pathak said the smartphone market could soften in 2026 as chip shortages and higher component costs bite, with chipmakers prioritising AI data centres over handsets. Reuters
The read-through for traders is simple: iPhone demand still moves the needle, but the supply-and-cost backdrop is getting messier. Apple has leaned on higher-end models and services to protect margins, yet a tighter parts market would test that playbook.
Stocks were jittery out of the gate. The Nasdaq opened down 0.40% and the S&P 500 slipped 0.32% as investors digested fresh political pressure on the Federal Reserve and a proposed cap on credit-card interest rates that hit financials.
Apple bulls also got a familiar push from the Street’s loudest voices. Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives said Apple could reach $350 in 2026 if it nails a handful of execution points, including clearer progress on its AI roadmap and continued strength in the iPhone cycle.
Overseas, Apple is facing a separate headache that investors are starting to price in across big tech: tighter rules tied to security and software control. India is proposing a package of 83 smartphone security standards that would require phone makers to share source code — the underlying programming instructions that run devices — and alert the government to major software updates, according to people familiar with the discussions and documents seen by Reuters. IT Secretary S. Krishnan told Reuters “any legitimate concerns of the industry will be addressed with an open mind,” while the IT ministry later said it “refutes the statement” that it is considering seeking source code, without elaborating. Reuters
Apple, Samsung, Google and Xiaomi did not respond to Reuters requests for comment, the report said. The debate matters because India is the world’s second-largest smartphone market, and Counterpoint estimates Apple has about 5% share there — a smaller base than rivals, but one it has been trying to grow.
But the near-term risk is that “softening” smartphone demand meets “hardening” costs. If component shortages deepen or governments push for more intrusive compliance steps, Apple could see pressure on unit volumes, delivery schedules or margins just as investors are looking for proof that the next product-and-services cycle can carry a premium valuation.
The next hard catalyst for Apple is its fiscal first-quarter results. The company has scheduled its earnings call for Jan. 29, after the close, when investors will be looking for detail on holiday-quarter demand and any update on the product and software roadmap for 2026.
