Jaguar Health stock swings as Future Pak licensing deal dangles $38 million — here’s what traders see

Jaguar Health stock swings as Future Pak licensing deal dangles $38 million — here’s what traders see

New York, January 12, 2026, 10:25 EST — Regular session

Jaguar Health, Inc (NASDAQ: JAGX) shares dropped roughly 9% Monday after announcing a U.S. licensing deal with an affiliate of private company Future Pak, potentially generating up to $38 million for its crofelemer products. The stock last traded near $0.96, after earlier surging as much as 38%, fluctuating between $0.94 and $1.45 on about 24 million shares. Under the deal, Future Pak will hold exclusive U.S. marketing rights for Mytesi and Canalevia-CA1. Jaguar will receive an $18 million upfront fee — $16 million at closing plus $2 million contingent on post-closing terms — and up to $20 million in milestone and other payments, while continuing to manufacture the drugs. 1

The deal comes as small drugmakers look to extend their cash runs without tapping stock sales too heavily. On Wall Street, “non-dilutive” means funding that doesn’t directly involve issuing new shares—a term that’s become a buzzword in today’s micro-cap biotech space.

Jaguar is also changing its core approach. Rather than driving U.S. commercial efforts with two products itself, it’s handing that task off to a partner and focusing on manufacturing — a side of the business that’s often simpler to control than sales and reimbursement hurdles.

Monday’s price moves felt more like a trade than a final judgment. A quick spike followed by a sharp pullback often happens when a headline grabs attention with big figures, but the real details emerge only afterward.

Crofelemer is the active ingredient in both drugs, but their approved uses remain quite specific. Mytesi targets symptomatic relief of noninfectious diarrhea in adults with HIV/AIDS undergoing antiretroviral therapy. Meanwhile, Canalevia-CA1 is designed to treat chemotherapy-induced diarrhea in dogs.

Investors see this as a clear portfolio play. If Future Pak boosts awareness and prescriptions, Jaguar gains cash and sheds complexity; if not, Jaguar has ceded commercial control and might miss out on the long-term upside.

The upside isn’t guaranteed, and timing plays a crucial role. The bigger upfront portion hinges on closing, while the remainder depends on conditions after closing. Missed sales targets or development milestones can wipe out those milestone payments altogether.

The bigger risk lies in the lab, not the deal. Jaguar aims to move crofelemer into less common intestinal-failure cases, but a misstep in mid-stage trial results could easily overshadow any partnership news for a stock this tiny.

Chief executive Lisa Conte described the deal as a move to streamline operations and bankroll the next growth stage. “Importantly, this agreement will provide Jaguar with meaningful non-dilutive capital while reducing the company’s operational complexity,” she said. The company plans to concentrate crofelemer efforts on rare diseases, aiming for Phase 2 study data in microvillus inclusion disease by March 2026. 2

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