Coinbase stock inches up as stablecoin rewards fight hits the Senate — what traders watch next for COIN

Coinbase stock inches up as stablecoin rewards fight hits the Senate — what traders watch next for COIN

New York, Jan 12, 2026, 19:47 (EST) — Trading extended into after-hours.

Shares of Coinbase Global ended Monday roughly 0.9% higher at $242.98, holding steady in after-hours trading. The move follows a Bloomberg News report that the crypto exchange is stepping up pressure on U.S. lawmakers regarding “stablecoin rewards” ahead of a crucial Senate markup this week. (Bloomberg Law)

The stakes couldn’t be clearer. Stablecoins—crypto tokens meant to maintain a steady value, often pegged to the U.S. dollar—have become a bigger revenue driver for Coinbase. As crypto prices fluctuate, Coinbase’s income from stablecoin balances has taken on greater importance. In its latest quarterly report, the company disclosed $354.7 million in stablecoin revenue for Q3 and $984.7 million over the first nine months of 2025.

Bloomberg reported that Coinbase might rethink backing the market-structure package if senators impose limits on stablecoin rewards beyond stricter disclosures. The company shares reserve income linked to Circle’s USDC stablecoin and promotes rewards “like interest,” including a 3.5% rate for certain Coinbase One USDC balances. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Nathan Dean estimates the bill’s chances of passing in H1 2026 at under 70%, while the American Bankers Association warned that “small businesses, farmers, students, and home buyers … will suffer” if deposits shift away from banks.

Oppenheimer’s Owen Lau held firm on his “Outperform” rating Monday but trimmed the price target to $370 from $381, per a GuruFocus report.

Bitcoin, a key barometer for crypto-related stocks, climbed about 0.5% to near $91,215.

Coinbase reported it fixed an issue on Monday that caused delays in some sends and receives on Polygon. The firm confirmed that buying, selling, and fiat transactions remained unaffected.

Coinbase has been preparing for tighter regulation. In October, the company revealed it submitted an application to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to establish a national trust company. This move could expand its offerings while operating under federal supervision.

The OCC has acted on similar requests before. In December, it gave conditional approval to five national trust bank charter applications, marking a wider effort by crypto companies to gain a foothold within the bank-regulatory framework.

The policy battle is complicated and affects the stock in both directions. Should lawmakers clamp down on rewards language, Coinbase might face challenges with stablecoin revenue and customer balances. On the other hand, if the bill stalls, the sector remains mired in regulatory uncertainty, risking a sharp drop in crypto volumes.

Thursday brings a Senate Banking Committee executive session focused on H.R.3633. Amendments may either solidify or scale back the flexibility exchanges have to continue offering rewards on stablecoin holdings. (Congress)

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