New York, Jan 12, 2026, 20:44 EST — Market closed
- Shares of Vistra climbed 3.7% on Monday, building on the momentum from strong tech-sector electricity use.
- The company kicked off a senior secured notes offering to back its planned acquisition of Cogentrix.
- Traders are focused on debt pricing details and the estimated earnings date set for next month.
Shares of Vistra Corp. (VST.N) rose 3.7% to $172.58 on Monday, with roughly 7.2 million shares traded. Investors digested news of a new debt offering alongside fresh Wall Street mandates tied to its long-term nuclear power deal with Meta Platforms.
The stock is tied to a broader trend: Big Tech scrambling to secure electricity for data centers and AI tasks. Meta announced Friday it inked 20-year deals to buy power from three Vistra nuclear plants and will support small-reactor projects with Oklo and TerraPower. Joel Kaplan from Meta said these moves would “make Meta one of the most significant corporate purchasers of nuclear energy in American history.” (Reuters)
Vistra’s Meta contracts are power purchase agreements (PPAs) locking in long-term terms for selling electricity and grid capacity. They cover 2,609 megawatts from the company’s PJM nuclear fleet. According to a recent SEC filing, Vistra anticipates an 8% to 10% boost in adjusted free cash flow before growth accretion, tied to operating energy and capacity at full delivery. On top of that, there’s an expected additional 5% to 7% from “uprates,” which are upgrades that increase plant output. (SEC)
Vistra took a financing step Monday, unveiling a private offering of senior secured notes maturing in 2031 and 2036. The company intends to use the proceeds to help fund its earlier announced acquisition of Cogentrix, along with general corporate needs and debt repayment. (Vistra Corp. Investor Relations)
UBS bumped up its price target on Vistra to $233 from $230, maintaining a buy rating. The firm highlighted the Meta PPAs as a key factor supporting its confidence that Vistra can boost cash generation while leaving room to secure more long-term contracts. UBS also projected about $400 million in EBITDA growth from existing nuclear assets, plus another $400 million from uprates. Additionally, it pointed to PJM capacity prices at $330 per megawatt-day—payments for available power—as a solid foundation for “visible” long-term cash flow. (Investing)
Vistra is pushing ahead with a debt sale as it aims to finalize its $4.0 billion net purchase of Cogentrix Energy. The deal covers a portfolio of 10 natural-gas plants, totaling roughly 5,500 megawatts, spread across PJM, ISO New England, and ERCOT. The company said last week it anticipates closing the transaction in mid-to-late 2026, pending regulatory approvals. (Vistra Corp. Investor Relations)
Vistra is positioning its deal with Meta as a way to maintain current nuclear plants while boosting output incrementally. CEO Jim Burke described it as “a unique and exciting collaboration.” Meta’s Urvi Parekh emphasized the company’s commitment to nuclear power, calling it “clean, reliable power” essential for their AI goals. Vistra said deliveries start in late 2026, with more capacity coming online through 2034. (Vistra Corp. Investor Relations)
The upside scenario still hinges on smooth execution and regulatory approval. Delays in equipment upgrades, unexpected rises in capital costs, or issues renewing operating licenses could weigh on returns. Plus, the debt offering means some financing remains vulnerable to credit spread fluctuations.
Investors must also navigate power-market cycles that can shift quickly: while contracted revenue offers some stability, wholesale prices and grid capacity payments fluctuate, affecting how much they’re willing to pay for future cash flow.
Up next: the fine print on the note sale—details on size and pricing usually drop shortly after launch. Separately, Nasdaq’s earnings calendar lists Vistra’s report for Feb. 26, though the company hasn’t officially confirmed the date. That update will probably shift the conversation around 2026 cash flow and capital spending.
