New York, January 12, 2026, 21:18 EST — The market has closed.
Adobe (ADBE) slipped 1.9% to $327.65 on Monday, marking its second day of losses, while the broader U.S. market nudged higher. The S&P 500 added 0.16%, the Dow rose 0.17%, with Apple and Alphabet closing up and Microsoft slipping, according to MarketWatch data. Adobe remains about 30% off its 52-week peak, with trading volume slightly below its 50-day average. (MarketWatch)
This shift is significant since Adobe stands as a test case for whether major software players can monetize generative AI—tools that generate images and other content from prompts—without losing ground to lower-cost competitors. Despite launching new AI capabilities, the stock remains pressured by fresh analyst skepticism.
Traders face a crucial macro test Tuesday morning: the U.S. Consumer Price Index for December drops at 8:30 a.m. ET. The Producer Price Index follows on Wednesday, with import/export prices due Thursday. These releases often shift rate expectations—and high-multiple software stocks tend to react first.
Goldman Sachs initiated coverage of Adobe with a Sell rating and set a $290 price target, according to a note reported by TipRanks from TheFly. The firm highlighted pressure on Adobe’s high-end “seat” growth—paid user subscriptions—as demand shifts toward more affordable tools. (TipRanks)
Adobe is pushing partner integrations within Firefly, its generative AI tool, offering users access to GPT Image 1.5 directly inside Firefly and Firefly Boards. The company highlights this as “the same model used in the ChatGPT AI image generator.” (Adobe)
Adobe is currently offering a limited-time deal through January 15 that lets subscribers on select Firefly plans generate unlimited content. The company also details varying “credit” costs for partner models like GPT Image and GPT Image 1.5. (Adobe Help Center)
Skepticism isn’t exactly fresh here. On Friday, BMO Capital Markets analyst Keith Bachman downgraded Adobe, pointing out that “Creative market competitive dynamics are increasing, particularly in smaller businesses, students, and freelancers.” While he called Adobe’s valuation attractive, the stock ranked lowest in his “pecking order” for the segment. (Barron’s)
The downside scenario is straightforward. Should AI become a basic expectation, Adobe might deal with increased discounting, rising model and infrastructure expenses, plus slower price hikes—while nimble smaller competitors erode its foothold on the low end. On top of that, a hotter-than-expected CPI reading could deal a second blow by driving yields higher and squeezing software valuations.
Investors will be focused on the CPI reaction in the next session, as well as whether the software sector finds support or slips further. A key upcoming date is Jan. 15, when the Firefly promotion wraps up.
The key date is March 12, when Adobe reports its first-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings. Investors will be watching closely for any clues on how the company plans to monetize AI, beyond just adoption, and the impact this could have on subscription growth and margins. (Adobe)
