New York, January 12, 2026, 21:16 EST — Market closed
- Caterpillar shares jumped 2% Monday, beating the broader Dow.
- Tuesday’s U.S. inflation report and the kickoff of major bank earnings are drawing investor attention.
- The spotlight remains on Caterpillar’s power-generation demand, though tariffs and rate uncertainties continue to cloud the outlook.
Caterpillar Inc shares climbed 1.9% to $629.77 on Monday, ending strong near the day’s highs after a weaker start.
This matters because the industrial bellwether stands at the intersection of what traders are scrambling to price: inflation, when rate cuts might come, and a fresh earnings season kicking off in just hours.
Markets are already running hot, and a big daily move in a heavyweight like Caterpillar can ripple through the Dow and shake sentiment across cyclicals.
The Dow and S&P 500 closed at record highs Monday, shrugging off fresh political noise surrounding Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell ahead of Tuesday’s U.S. consumer price index report. “The news that Powell is being investigated by the Justice Department was basically telegraphed by Trump, so I think the market is taking it in stride for now,” said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities. 1
Caterpillar shareholders now turn to the upcoming CPI report as a crucial short-term checkpoint. If inflation comes in hotter, bond yields could rise, tightening financial conditions and putting pressure on the capital spending that fuels strong order books.
A review of public reports and filings found no immediate company announcement on Monday to explain the stock’s late strength.
Investors have stuck with the same factors driving Caterpillar’s stock since the last quarterly update: robust power-generation demand from data center expansions and the company’s knack for holding onto margins despite rising costs. In October, Caterpillar highlighted AI-related demand for its energy equipment. Third Bridge analyst Ryan Keeney noted that sales in power generation should keep climbing, given Caterpillar’s “market leadership” in backup power for data centers. Finance chief Andrew Bonfield, however, flagged that tariff pressures are likely to hit harder in the final quarter compared to Q3. 2
The downside is straightforward to outline. Rising rates could dampen construction activity, dealer orders might shift quickly during a slowdown, and tariff-related expenses are unpredictable—potentially squeezing margins if demand weakens.
Deere and Japan’s Komatsu offer hints on construction and mining demand, but Caterpillar’s own upcoming results will provide a clearer picture. Investors are keen for updates on orders, backlog, and how quickly power-systems shipments are moving.
Caterpillar is set to release its earnings on Jan. 29, per Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. Traders are eyeing this as the next key event. 3
