SYDNEY, Jan 13, 2026, 17:16 AEDT — Market closed
- National Australia Bank shares climbed 1.9%, marking their second consecutive gain
- Fresh consumer sentiment data refocused attention on rate expectations
- Traders are focusing on the RBA decision set for Feb. 3 and NAB’s trading update due Feb. 18
Shares of National Australia Bank Limited climbed 1.85% to close at A$42.39 on Tuesday, marking their second consecutive day of gains and outperforming the wider market. 1
This shift is significant as banks find themselves back in the spotlight of rate speculation. Investors are weighing if the Reserve Bank of Australia has finished cutting rates or is gearing up to pivot, directly influencing forecasts for bank profits.
Australia’s latest consumer sentiment data stayed weighed down by worries over mortgage rates and changing bets on the RBA’s next move. Westpac’s Matthew Hassan pointed to “a sharp turn in interest rate expectations” as the key driver. Reuters also noted that Commonwealth Bank of Australia and NAB expect a rate hike next month. 2
The S&P/ASX 200 ended the day 0.56% higher, settling at 8,808.50. 3
Other big banks closed higher. Commonwealth Bank was up 0.48%, ANZ climbed 1.64%, and Westpac gained 1.10%. 4 5 6
For NAB and others in the sector, the key focus remains the rate trajectory, which directly influences net interest margin — the difference between loan earnings and deposit costs. The RBA’s cash rate target currently stands at 3.60%, with the next decision due on Feb. 3. 7
Not everyone is convinced a rate hike is just around the corner. AMP economist My Bui pointed out that consumers are “very sensitive to interest rate expectations,” suggesting the RBA might keep its hawkish stance without actually raising rates at the February meeting. 8
The trade isn’t one-sided. While a rate hike could boost margins on the top line, it might also suppress credit demand and increase strain in segments of the mortgage portfolio if borrowers start to falter.
With little company-specific news to drive moves, investors turned their attention to the calendar. NAB’s upcoming key event is its first-quarter trading update, set for Feb. 18. 9
The RBA’s decision statement for Feb. 3 is set for 2:30 p.m. AEDT, with minutes coming out on Feb. 17. These dates could shake up the ongoing rates debate once more. 10
