New York, January 13, 2026, 21:08 ET — Markets have shut down for the day.
- Confluent announced that the U.S. antitrust waiting period for IBM’s $11 billion deal has ended
- IBM shares ended Tuesday down roughly 2.9%
- Attention turns to IBM’s results on Jan. 28 and Confluent’s shareholder vote set for Feb. 12
Confluent confirmed that the U.S. antitrust waiting period for International Business Machines’ $11 billion acquisition has lapsed, marking a key regulatory milestone. The Hart-Scott-Rodino Act’s waiting period expired at 11:59 p.m. ET on Jan. 12. IBM shares closed Tuesday down 2.9% at $303.16. Confluent also announced a shareholder meeting scheduled for Feb. 12 but noted that additional regulatory approvals remain pending.
The Hart-Scott-Rodino process requires buyers and targets to alert U.S. antitrust regulators and pause before finalizing a deal. Once the waiting period ends, it often signals the deal is proceeding without triggering a lengthy “second request” review that can drag on for months.
For IBM, this cuts through a major layer of uncertainty just as investors shift focus from the headline deal to its impact on growth, margins, and cash flow in 2026. Traders will be quick to seize on any hint that the closing process is smoothing out — or hitting new snags.
IBM unveiled its Confluent acquisition in December, framing it as a move to boost the data infrastructure underpinning enterprise AI. CEO Arvind Krishna said then, “IBM and Confluent together will enable enterprises to deploy generative and agentic AI better and faster.” 1
IBM took a hit Tuesday, falling harder than the broader market. The Dow slipped 0.8%, the S&P 500 dipped 0.2%, but IBM lagged behind both as investors sifted through early earnings reports. 2
BofA Securities analyst Wamsi Mohan bumped IBM’s price target to $335 from $315, maintaining a Buy rating. He cited a “more modest year” ahead, due to a weak finish to F25 and multiple challenges in F26. Mohan highlighted a $400 million “workforce rebalancing” charge hitting in Q4, along with a decline in pretax income margin.
“Workforce rebalancing” is corporate speak for reallocating staff and expenses within a company. This might mean layoffs, retraining employees, or shifting them into faster-growing divisions. Pretax income margin refers to profit before taxes expressed as a percentage of revenue.
The deal isn’t done yet. Confluent still requires shareholder approval and regulatory clearances outside the U.S., where cross-border reviews can throw a wrench in the works even at the last minute.
Basic integration risk looms large: shelling out for growth looks straightforward on paper but proves tougher in execution. Should IBM’s software growth falter or deal timing drag, the market’s tolerance could evaporate fast.
Confluent shares closed just under $30.42, slightly below IBM’s agreed cash price of $31 per share. That slim margin is exactly where merger-arbitrage investors stake their wagers — and hedge their skepticism.
IBM’s next key date is its Q4 earnings on Jan. 28, where investors will zero in on 2026 guidance for software growth, margins, and cash flow. Right after that comes the Confluent vote on Feb. 12, along with any news on overseas regulatory approvals. 3
Wednesday’s session will reveal if a smoother U.S. regulatory landscape for Confluent can ease concerns over short-term expenses ahead of its earnings report.
