London, Jan 14, 2026, 08:49 GMT — Regular session.
Shares of Rio Tinto plc (RIO.L) ticked up Wednesday amid renewed investor speculation that the miner might be gearing up for a bid on Glencore.
Rio’s shares ticked up 0.3% to 6,231 pence following a Reuters report that the company has appointed JPMorgan, Evercore, and Macquarie to advise on a possible Glencore takeover. Such a deal would forge a mining giant worth over $200 billion. The report also noted advisory fees could exceed $100 million on a transaction of this scale. 1
The chatter comes as major miners race to secure copper, essential for power grids and AI data centers. According to two sources who spoke to Reuters, BHP isn’t planning a competing bid for Glencore and will hold off until things clear up. That stance eases concerns some investors had about a potential “spoiler” move. 2
Mark Kelly, CEO of merger-arbitrage firm MKI Global Partners, said shareholders still face “plenty more questions than answers” about how the deal would actually unfold. Merger arbitrage involves betting on deals closing. Recently, Citi, JPMorgan, and UBS have restricted or suspended their ratings on Rio and Glencore, according to Bloomberg data. 3
Rio investors are left to gauge a deal with little clarity on its structure, assets, or terms. Still, the market is pushing forward regardless.
But having advisers on board doesn’t guarantee a deal. If negotiations stall or face resistance from regulators and shareholders, the plan might fall apart, sending the stock back down after that modest deal premium creeps in.
Traders are set to monitor Glencore’s choice of advisers closely, along with any fresh updates as the process unfolds. Copper and iron ore price movements will continue to influence the scene in the background.
Rio plans to release its 2025 Q4 operations review on Jan. 21, providing updates on production and shipments. The company will then report its full-year 2025 results on Feb. 19. 4
Rio said the deal would likely take the form of Glencore being acquired through a court-approved “scheme of arrangement,” a UK legal process needing both shareholder and court sign-off. It also emphasized there’s no guarantee an offer will actually come. Under the UK Takeover Code, Rio has until 5 p.m. London time on Feb. 5 to either make a firm bid or walk away. 5
