London, Jan 14, 2026, 12:04 GMT — Regular session
Brent crude futures climbed for a fifth day on Wednesday as tensions with Iran sparked fears of supply disruptions. By 1054 GMT, Brent had gained 84 cents, or 1.3%, reaching $66.31 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate also rose, adding 81 cents, or 1.3%, to $61.96. (Reuters)
This matters because Brent is the key benchmark for pricing much of the world’s traded oil, and its shifts can rapidly influence fuel costs and inflation expectations. The market is factoring in a geopolitical “risk premium”—the extra cost traders accept for the possibility that supply gets disrupted—even as discussions about increased Venezuelan shipments linger over the Atlantic basin. (ICE)
Spreads are reflecting the ongoing tug-of-war. On Tuesday, WTI traded at a $4.76-a-barrel discount to Brent—the largest gap since April—following the U.S. removal of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on Jan. 3 and the rerouting of Venezuelan crude to U.S. ports, according to traders and analysts. (Reuters)
Tehran has warned U.S. allies in the Middle East that it would target American bases on their soil if Washington launched an attack on Iran. Diplomatic sources told Reuters some U.S. military personnel stationed at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar were advised to evacuate. (Reuters)
“The oil market is factoring in some price support due to geopolitical risks,” said John Evans, analyst at PVM Oil Associates, on Tuesday. He highlighted the chance of Iran’s exports tightening, coupled with ongoing uncertainty over Venezuela. (Reuters)
Inventory figures pushed back against recent trends. The American Petroleum Institute, a key industry group, revealed that U.S. crude stocks increased by 5.23 million barrels in the week ending Jan. 9. Gasoline supplies also grew, climbing 8.23 million barrels, with distillate inventories up by 4.34 million barrels. (Reuters)
The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its weekly petroleum report after 10:30 a.m. Eastern on Wednesdays. Traders frequently rely on it to verify or dispute the API’s figures. (EIA)
Venezuela is back in the spotlight as state oil giant PDVSA starts undoing output cuts from the strict U.S. embargo, according to sources. The company has restarted wells after exports were stalled by storage bottlenecks. Two supertankers, each carrying about 1.8 million barrels, have departed Venezuelan ports, which sources say might signal the kickoff of shipments tied to a broader supply agreement. (Reuters)
Tuesday’s rally shaped the market mood. Brent futures closed $1.60 higher, a 2.5% jump, at $65.47 a barrel. Barclays analysts put the geopolitical risk premium from Iran’s unrest at roughly $3 to $4 per barrel. (Reuters)
Mizuho Securities’ Bob Yawger warned the real surprise would be if buyers across the board pulled away from Iranian barrels, slashing global supply by roughly 3.3 million barrels a day—the volume Iran currently pumps into the market. (Reuters)
But the rally needs more to keep momentum. Should unrest fail to reach Iran’s main oil-producing regions and U.S. government data show hefty builds in crude and fuels, gains might fade—especially if Venezuelan shipments pick up pace. (Reuters)
Setting aside daily headlines, the EIA continues to see oversupply pressuring prices this year, projecting Brent to average $56 a barrel in 2026. That’s driven by global production outpacing demand growth. (EIA)
The next key event for traders is the EIA inventory report due Wednesday. New developments from Iran and early indications of how fast Venezuelan shipments arrive in the U.S. are expected to shape Brent’s next move. (EIA)
