WASHINGTON, Jan 14, 2026, 08:58 (EST)
- U.S. retail sales climbed 0.6% in November, beating the 0.4% forecast, driven by a rebound in car purchases.
- Producer prices rose 0.2% in November, driven mainly by higher energy-related goods costs.
- Investors are shifting focus to existing home sales, oil inventory figures, and a series of Fed speeches scheduled for later Wednesday.
U.S. retail sales climbed beyond expectations in November, while producer prices edged higher. This fresh data offers investors insight into consumer demand and inflation pressures as delayed government reports gradually surface.
Stock index futures slipped in early trading as investors weighed big-bank earnings and wrestled with the implications of “sticky” inflation for the Fed’s upcoming decisions. 1
Retail sales rose 0.6% in November, rebounding from a revised 0.1% decline in October, the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau said. Analysts surveyed by Reuters had forecast a 0.4% increase. The data release is still playing catch-up after a 43-day government shutdown delayed reporting. 2
Bank of America Securities highlighted a growing divide in spending across income brackets in its Consumer Prism report, describing the gap as “substantial and persistent.” The firm noted that a “K-shape” pattern is especially clear when it comes to discretionary spending.
Producer prices, which track what businesses charge one another before goods hit the consumer, climbed 0.2% in November, according to the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics. The index showed a 3.0% increase compared to the same month last year. Meanwhile, a core measure that excludes food, energy, and trade margins also rose 0.2% for the month and 3.5% year over year. 3
Tuesday’s inflation data revealed that consumer prices continued to climb, but at a tempered rate. The CPI increased 2.7% over the 12 months ending in December, with “core” inflation, which strips out food and energy, ticking up 2.6%, according to the 8 .
Food and shelter costs continued to rattle both politicians and markets in the latest report. “Families may not follow core inflation numbers closely, but they notice grocery and restaurant prices right away,” said Sung Won Sohn, finance and economics professor at Loyola Marymount University. 4
The Fed is widely expected to keep its benchmark rate steady between 3.50% and 3.75% at its meeting on Jan. 27-28, though the timing of any rate cuts remains uncertain. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, cautioned that policymakers “may lean more hawkish” to affirm their independence amid rising scrutiny of Fed Chair Jerome Powell. 4
Wednesday’s U.S. data slate kicks off with existing home sales at 10:00 a.m. ET, followed by weekly crude oil inventories at 10:30 a.m. The Fed’s Beige Book drops at 2:00 p.m. ET, offering a district-level look at economic conditions ahead of policy discussions. Several Fed officials are set to speak as well. 5
Mortgage applications data arrived early this morning, ahead of the Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly report set for 7:00 a.m. ET — a key trigger for housing stocks sensitive to interest rates. 6
Yet the danger for markets lies in the fact that the “new” data remain backward-looking and vulnerable to revisions following shutdown disruptions. If energy-driven producer prices surge again, or if consumer spending holds up despite rising food and rent costs, the Fed may stay cautious, forcing a quick reprice of rate-cut expectations.
The week remains packed. Thursday brings jobless claims and regional factory surveys, while Friday rolls in industrial production data and homebuilder sentiment. Markets get plenty of opportunities to shift their stance again. 7
