New York, Jan 14, 2026, 14:58 EST — Regular session
- Caterpillar shares barely moved Wednesday, following a record peak reached the day before
- Citi’s price-target boost kept attention on CAT’s role in data-center power demand
- Traders are focused on the Jan. 20 ex-dividend date and whether the AI-driven backlog story remains intact
Caterpillar shares slipped 0.04% to $636.29 in Wednesday afternoon trading, taking a breather after the heavy-equipment giant hit a record intraday peak the day before. 1
The stock’s surge has shifted its image from a classic economic bellwether to an “AI infrastructure” play, with investors zeroing in on firms that build and operate data centers—not just those that design the underlying chips.
This is significant as major investors aim to extend the AI play past just megacap tech. BlackRock noted clients planning AI investments through 2026 are favoring energy and infrastructure sectors. Ibrahim Kanan, head of core U.S. equity at BlackRock, said it’s time to “risk-manage megacap and AI exposure” while seeking gains in other areas. 2
Citi analyst Kyle Menges boosted his price target for Caterpillar to $710, citing a surge in data-center-related sales now projected at $15.5 billion by 2030, up from $11 billion. A recent media report also noted Caterpillar’s Energy & Transportation division pulled in $28 billion in 2024, with the company aiming to double power-generation sales by 2030. 3
Power is riding a strong tailwind. The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts electricity demand hitting new highs in 2026 and 2027, driven partly by data centers connected to artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency. 4
Politics is starting to play a role. Microsoft, a top player in data-center construction, launched a new initiative aimed at curbing the strain data centers put on power prices and water resources. Brad Smith, the company’s vice chair and president, called it “unfair and politically unrealistic” to expect the public to bear higher electricity costs caused by AI. 5
Caterpillar has been pushing the tech angle hard. At CES 2026 in Las Vegas, it rolled out the Cat AI Assistant and announced a broader partnership with Nvidia aimed at embedding AI and robotics further into heavy industry. 6
The company urged investors to focus again on execution and incoming orders. CEO Joe Creed noted last quarter that “resilient demand” and a “growing backlog” were driving momentum — the backlog being the stockpile of unfilled orders. 7
Caterpillar’s outlook remains tied to the usual cycles. Should construction and mining slow down, or if customers continue cutting dealer inventories, the AI boost alone might fall short of supporting the results.
Caterpillar has cautioned before that tariffs could hit profits, and it also noted a drop in equipment demand as dealers cut back on orders — signaling how quickly the core business feels the pinch when the economy slows. 8
Traders now have their eyes on Caterpillar’s ex-dividend date coming up on Jan. 20, when the stock will start trading without the upcoming dividend. Also on the radar is the board shake-up scheduled for April 1, when Creed is set to take over as chairman. 9
