New York, January 14, 2026, 17:28 EST — After-hours
- Cheniere Energy shares rose about 3% on Wednesday, extending gains after the close
- Wolfe Research upgraded the LNG exporter to Outperform and set a $220 price target
- U.S. natural gas futures fell nearly 7% amid weaker LNG feedgas flows despite colder weather forecasts
Cheniere Energy shares climbed on Wednesday after Wolfe Research upgraded the liquefied natural gas exporter, with the stock last up 3.2% at $199.72 after the bell. Cheniere Energy Partners, the listed partnership that owns the Sabine Pass LNG plant, was up 1.9%.
The move matters because investors have been trying to separate the gas price tape from the export story. LNG — natural gas cooled into liquid for shipping — has tied U.S. gas flows to overseas demand in a way that can swing both futures and the stocks.
Wednesday was a clean example. U.S. gas prices fell sharply, but Cheniere’s stock rose as the market focused on contract cover and cash returns rather than the day’s commodity dip.
Wolfe Research upgraded Cheniere to Outperform from Peer Perform with a $220 price target, saying the valuation was “too compelling even with overbuild headwinds.” The firm pointed to a business it said was about 90% contracted for 16 years with “A- credit” customers and called the stock “floor value,” flagging a 15% free cash flow yield in 2028 and 2029. (TipRanks)
Free cash flow yield is a cash metric — what is left after operating costs and capital spending — measured against the stock’s market value. For LNG exporters, long-term contracts can help smooth earnings when gas prices or shipping economics turn.
Chief executive Jack Fusco said on Tuesday the company expects to be processing about 10 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas by the end of 2026, speaking at an American Petroleum Institute event in Washington. (BOE Report)
The sector is also watching new contract flow. Saudi Aramco and Commonwealth LNG signed a long-term supply deal for 1 million metric tonnes per year, with an option to double that volume, according to people familiar with the agreement. Commonwealth is targeting a final investment decision by the end of the first quarter. (Reuters)
In the commodity market, front-month U.S. natural gas futures for February fell 23 cents, or 6.7%, to $3.189 per million British thermal units, after a drop in preliminary gas flows to LNG export plants in Texas. Reuters data cited by LSEG showed LNG “feedgas” — gas sent into export terminals — was on track to dip to a two-month low on Wednesday, with declines flagged at Freeport LNG and Cheniere’s Corpus Christi facility, even as forecasts called for colder-than-normal weather and a jump in demand next week. (BOE Report)
Policy forecasts are pulling the other way. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said it expects Henry Hub prices to stay mostly flat in 2026 at just under $3.50 per mmBtu, before rising to nearly $4.60 in 2027 as LNG exports and power-sector consumption grow faster than production. (U.S. Energy Information Administration)
But the downside is obvious: if LNG plant flows stay choppy, or a warm turn in weather dents demand, gas prices can sag and the market can start re-pricing the “overbuild” risk Wolfe flagged. A bigger squeeze in global price spreads would hit the value of uncontracted volumes and new project economics, even for the better-covered names.
Next up is Thursday’s weekly U.S. gas storage report from the EIA at 10:30 a.m. Eastern, alongside fresh reads on LNG feedgas flows heading into the coldest stretch forecast for mid-January. (Eia)
