TSMC Q4 earnings beat forecasts on AI demand — the numbers driving TSM stock
15 January 2026
2 mins read

TSMC Q4 earnings beat forecasts on AI demand — the numbers driving TSM stock

TAIPEI, Jan 15, 2026, 14:23 (GMT+8)

  • TSMC reported a record Q4 profit of T$505.74 billion, soaring 35% and beating market expectations
  • Sales climbed to T$1.046 trillion, driven by strong demand for 3nm and 5nm chips
  • Trump’s tariff threats and U.S. expansion plans cloud the 2026 outlook

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co reported a record profit for the fourth quarter on Thursday, driven by strong demand for AI chips. The company’s net profit soared 35% year-on-year to T$505.7 billion ($16.01 billion), surpassing analyst expectations. Reuters

This result is significant since TSMC is at the heart of the AI boom, providing cutting-edge chips to major U.S. tech players like Nvidia and Apple. Any shift in its margins sends ripples through much of the supply chain.

The timing is shaky for the sector. Investors wrestle with whether AI demand will hold up through 2026 as geopolitics and trade tensions worsen.

TSMC’s revenue for October through December jumped 20.5% to T$1.046 trillion ($33.73 billion), according to its management report. Gross margin also improved, hitting 62.3%. The company attributed the margin boost mainly to cost-cutting measures, a favorable foreign exchange rate, and increased capacity utilization. High-performance computing—which covers server and AI chips—accounted for 55% of the quarter’s revenue. Meanwhile, 3-nanometre chips made up 28% of wafer revenue. Tsmc

TSMC posted revenue of T$3.81 trillion for 2025, with diluted earnings per share hitting T$66.25—a significant jump from 2024. Its quarterly EPS came in at T$19.50. Tsmc

Spending remained robust. Capital expenditure — the cash outlay on plants and equipment — hit $40.9 billion in 2025. TSMC’s cash reserves stayed hefty too, with cash and marketable securities topping T$3 trillion by year-end.

Trade remains the unpredictable factor ahead. President Donald Trump has warned of tariffs targeting semiconductors, leaving chipmakers scrambling to interpret the impact on their global operations, which rely heavily on cross-border supply chains.

TSMC is ramping up its U.S. footprint. Last year, it unveiled a $100 billion investment plan, adding to the $65 billion already committed for three plants in Arizona—one of which is now operational, Reuters reported. Its shares have soared roughly 53% over the past 12 months. Reuters

Rivals aren’t sitting still. Samsung Electronics is pushing hard to narrow the gap in advanced manufacturing, and Intel is pouring funds into expanding its foundry operations. Yet, TSMC continues to lead at the cutting edge.

The upside isn’t without risks. TSMC has flagged margin dilution from its overseas fabs, and expanding more aggressively outside Taiwan could hit profits if costs outpace pricing or utilization rates.

Valuation is coming back into focus for stock investors after the recent surge. A Barchart columnist pointed out that TSMC is trading at a premium compared to many other semiconductor companies based on forward earnings. This suggests the market has already priced in much of the AI narrative. Barchart

Stock Market Today

  • Soybeans edge higher at midday as shipments, USDA data support prices
    January 15, 2026, 2:01 AM EST. Soybeans were firmer at midday, with most contracts up 5-10 cents. Nearby cash soybeans printed $9.90 1/4 per bushel; March soybeans $10.51 1/4, May $10.65 1/2, November $10.56, and new-crop cash $9.92 1/2. Soymeal gained 90 cents per ton and soy oil added 35 points. A 10% tariff on Chinese goods takes effect Tuesday after President Trump's executive order. Weekly export inspections clocked 1.013 MMT in the week ending Jan 30, down 42.1% year over year but up 37.3% week over week, with China the top destination. Marketing year shipments total 34.066 MMT, 157% above last year. Managed money added 16,166 contracts to net long to 56,496. USDA's Fats & Oils report due later today; Brazil harvest at 9% vs 16% a year ago; Brazil crop around 174 MMT.
Aristocrat stock slips after buyback update hits tape as ALL heads into February AGM
Previous Story

Aristocrat stock slips after buyback update hits tape as ALL heads into February AGM

Woodside Energy stock edges up on JERA winter LNG deal as Scarborough update nears
Next Story

Woodside Energy stock edges up on JERA winter LNG deal as Scarborough update nears

Go toTop