London, Jan 15, 2026, 12:00 GMT — Regular session
- Brent slid after U.S. comments eased near-term worries over Iran-linked supply disruption
- A U.S. crude stock build and rising gasoline inventories added pressure
- Next week’s IEA and U.S. inventory updates are the near-term tests for direction
Brent futures tumbled more than 4% on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump said killings of demonstrators during protests in Iran were stopping, easing fears of a U.S. strike and supply disruptions. Brent was down $2.84, or 4.27%, at $63.68 a barrel by 1012 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell $2.68, or 4.32%, to $59.34. “The immediate risk premium had softened but is unlikely to go away,” Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen said. 1
The slide matters because the market had been paying up for geopolitics. When that “risk premium” — the extra cushion built into prices to cover disruption risk — comes out fast, it tends to drag momentum traders with it.
It also puts the focus back on supply and storage, not slogans. The past week’s rally ran into fresh evidence that barrels are still showing up, even with the headlines.
In New York on Wednesday, Brent settled $1.05 higher at $66.52 before reversing after Trump’s remarks, falling 92 cents to $64.55 after settlement. Phil Flynn, a senior analyst at Price Futures Group, said oil “plummeted really quickly”, while Citi analysts wrote that Iran’s unrest mainly adds a “rising geopolitical risk premium” rather than immediate losses in output. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported crude stocks rose by 3.4 million barrels to 422.4 million, while gasoline inventories jumped 9 million barrels to 251 million; Venezuela also began reversing production cuts and resumed exports, three sources said. 2
On the demand side, OPEC tried to push back on the glut story. The producer group forecast global oil demand growth of 1.34 million barrels per day in 2027 and said “Global economic activity is expected to maintain its strong performance in both 2026 and 2027,” while noting OPEC+ plans to pause production hikes in the first quarter of 2026. The International Energy Agency, in contrast, sees a 2026 supply surplus of about 3.84 million bpd. 3
That split — geopolitics and OPEC optimism on one side, inventory builds and surplus forecasts on the other — is keeping Brent whippy. Traders have been quick to buy the scare and just as quick to sell when the risk looks less immediate.
But the downside case is not clean. Recent flare-ups around Venezuela, Iran and the Black Sea have been enough to jolt positioning, and drone attacks on two oil tankers in the Black Sea this week sharpened nerves about export routes tied to Kazakhstan. Any threat to flows through the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint that handles around a fifth of global oil and gas shipments — could put the risk premium back in a hurry. 4
The next test comes with scheduled data. The IEA is due to update its monthly oil market report on Jan. 21, followed by the next EIA weekly petroleum status report on Jan. 22 — dates that could either validate the surplus narrative or force another rethink. 5
