New York, Jan 15, 2026, 08:51 EST — Premarket
Nvidia Corp (NVDA) shares climbed 1.8% in Thursday premarket trading to $186.40, rebounding after a 1.4% drop on Wednesday, according to MarketWatch. The move followed a Nikkei Asia report saying China is drafting rules to limit how many advanced AI chips local companies can import from suppliers like Nvidia. Reuters, unable to confirm the Nikkei report, added that Beijing has instructed some firms to pause purchases of Nvidia’s H200 chips, with customs reportedly blocking shipments, sources told Reuters. 1
Washington is reopening the pipeline, and that’s why the tug-of-war is heating up now. On Tuesday, the Trump administration formally approved sales of Nvidia’s H200 — its second-most powerful AI chip — to China. The deal comes with strings: third-party lab checks and a cap limiting China to no more than half the chips sold to U.S. customers. Nvidia has to certify there are enough H200s stateside, and Chinese buyers must prove they have “sufficient security procedures.” Reuters reported Chinese firms have already ordered over 2 million of these chips. Nvidia called the policy a “thoughtful balance,” but Jay Goldberg at Seaport Research called it a “Band-Aid” that might be tough to enforce. 2
Trump slapped a 25% tariff on certain AI chips, including Nvidia’s H200 and AMD’s MI325X, citing national security under a Section 232 probe—a U.S. law allowing duties for security reasons. The White House insisted the tariffs target a narrow scope, exempting chips and devices brought in for U.S. data centers and select uses. Yet, chips bound for China must first pass through U.S. testing, where they’ll be hit with the tariff upon entry. 3
The political backlash has been fierce. At a congressional hearing Wednesday, former Trump Asia adviser Matt Pottinger slammed the administration for being on the “wrong track,” warning that selling H200 chips to China would “supercharge Beijing’s military modernization.” The White House claims that exporting advanced chips to China keeps rivals like Huawei from closing the gap, but Pottinger dismissed that as a “fantasy,” according to the report. 4
Chip stocks got a boost following Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co’s latest results, which set the tone ahead of the U.S. open. TSMC, a crucial supplier of advanced chips to Nvidia, reported a quarterly profit jump of 35%, beating forecasts. It also projects 2026 revenue growth of nearly 30% in U.S. dollar terms and plans capital expenses between $52 billion and $56 billion. Yet, CEO C.C. Wei voiced caution on the AI surge, saying, “We’re also very nervous about it.” Quilter Cheviot’s Ben Barringer noted TSMC “ultimately benefits as the key manufacturer” amid competition among Nvidia, Broadcom, and AMD. 5
Nvidia’s immediate challenge is whether approvals translate into actual shipments or get bogged down in red tape, reviews, and political hurdles. Pre-market moves can be sharp, driven by thinner volumes compared to the main 9:30 a.m. New York session.
Traders are grappling with a straightforward question: will China’s “some sales, but not too many” stance act as an unofficial ceiling, or is it just a brief signal before buyers figure out alternatives? Either way, regulators hold much of the power over what happens next, not engineers.
The setup isn’t without risks. Should Beijing clamp down harder at customs or impose a strict cap on purchases, the H200 sales rebound might stall despite U.S. licenses. Plus, if the added tariff and testing hurdles create more friction, it could tighten timing and eat into margins.
Nvidia is set to report its fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results on Feb. 25, offering a fresh snapshot of demand and supply trends. 6
